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As the Bush Administration launched a final diplomatic offensive to recruit the support of wavering countries on the United Nations Security Council, its mission was apparently being hampered by past disappointments among key allies.
France’s opposition to the UN resolution was widely expected and its threatened use of the veto always a possibility after Paris launched a long and bitter rearguard action during the debate over last year’s UN Resolution 1441 on Iraq.
Yesterday, the focus for diplomatic activity was on Angola, Cameroon and Guinea, the African nations on the Security Council, whose votes could be critical. Baroness Amos, the Foreign Office minister for Africa, will wrap up a three-nation tour today. US officials believe privately that African support for the resolution is now closer than ever.
But the tortuous diplomatic process underway may never have been necessary if the Bush Administration had done more to nurture the loyalty of its traditional allies.
What has taken diplomats by surprise is Moscow’s stubborn resistance to the resolution, Mexico’s continued dithering and Pakistan’s open reluctance to back its long-standing ally.
A year ago President Bush lauded President Putin as his “friend” and vowed to forge a new relationship with America’s Cold War adversary.
Russia bowed to American pressure in accepting Nato’s eastern expansion and the abrogation of the Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty. After the attacks on September 11 Moscow helped America to establish a military presence in the former Soviet republics of Central Asia and gave the US military detailed information about fighting in Afghanistan. “There is a sense of disappointment in the Kremlin and among the Russian political elite about the relationship with the Americans,” one diplomat said. “They feel there has been too much one-way traffic.”
Last year, for instance, Mr Bush promised Mr Putin that he would persuade Congress to lift the Jackson-Vanik amendment, punitive trade sanctions imposed during the Cold War. So far no action has been taken. In addition Russia stands to lose billions in existing contracts and outstanding debts from Iraq, all signed with the existing regime.
Mexico’s President Fox was in a protracted meeting with advisers yesterday after coming under strong pressure from Washington to back its resolution.
During Mr Bush’s election campaign, the former Texas governor courted the Hispanic vote and pledged that he would establish a “special relationship” with America’s southern neighbour.
But the Mexicans have been disappointed that the Administration has failed to reach an agreement that would have regulated the status of millions of Mexicans working illegally in the US.
Pakistan is resentful towards Washington. President Musharraf challenged public opinion in his country by supporting America’s war in Afghanistan. Pakistani security forces continue to co-operate with America in the hunt for al-Qaeda members with a recent string of successful arrests.
Although the Iraqi regime is unpopular in Pakistan, openly backing a US-led war could cause a backlash among militant Muslim groups.
“We do not want to see the destruction of the Iraqi people, the destruction of the country. It is very difficult for any Pakistani to see this,” Zafarullah Khan Jamali, the Prime Minister, said in a televised speech to the nation.
He did not say how Pakistan would vote and left open the possibility that it would support America. Mexico may reach the same conclusion and Russia may abstain.
Washington will, in future, have to work much harder if it hopes to keep the loyalty of its allies across the globe.
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