EUROPE’S population will continue to decline for decades even if birthrates improve significantly, researchers have calculated.

Trends towards smaller families and later motherhood mean that there are too few women of childbearing age to reverse the decline in the near future, according to an Austrian study. The year 2000 marked a turning point, with the population’s “momentum” becoming negative; there will be fewer parents in the next generation than in this one.

At present 1.5 babies are born for every European Union woman, when two births are required for the population “replacement rate” to be maintained. Even if women started to have more children again, at younger ages, the tendency to population decline would continue for decades, as there would be too few potential mothers to make a difference.

The findings come from a study by Wolfgang Lutz, of the Austrian Academy of Science in Vienna, and Brian O’Neill, of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria, using data from the European Demographic Observatory.

They show that Europe’s population could decline by as much as 88 million people if present trends continue for another 15 years. The population of the European Union was about 375 million in 2000.

The decline made Europe the scene of a significant social experiment, Dr Lutz said. “Negative momentum has not been experienced on a large scale in world history so far,” he added.

The model, details of which are published today in the journal Science, does not take into account immigration, which will be required if the population is not to slip dramatically. “We expect continued immigration into Europe, but we wanted to identify these two mechanisms which we think are new and important insights into the nature of population dynamics,” Dr Lutz said.

The authors said that the changing role of women was a significant factor in the projected population decline. Many were putting off having their first child to concentrate on their education or career.

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