THE political crisis in Hong Kong will intensify today as another big rally for democracy marks a new step in the boldest challenge to China’s leaders since the Tiananmen Square protests of 1989.

A rebellion against a draconian security bill imposed by China has turned into a mass movement that has shaken the new Chinese leadership and is certain to overshadow Tony Blair’s visit next week to Beijing and Hong Kong.

The prime minister will fly in amid the most dramatic scenes in the former colony since the handover to Chinese rule in 1997. He will be put on the spot to say — at the risk of offending China — whether Britain backs the Hong Kong people in their calls for democracy.

“People will want to know where he stands,” said a prominent member of the British Chamber of Commerce, where Blair will deliver a speech on July 23, “and that will be bloody awkward for him.”

Half a million Hong Kong people marched against the bill on July 1 and 50,000 took to the streets again last week demanding the resignation of Tung Chee-hwa, the tycoon chosen by China as chief executive to replace the last British governor, Chris Patten.

Tung was forced to withdraw a draft of the security bill from the legislative council after his administration split on the issue and signs emerged that China had lost confidence in him.

Alarmed Chinese leaders have sent in teams of political cadres and intelligence agents to report on the upheavals, which caught Beijing by surprise.

The local Chinese-language press speculates that, as in 1989, the instability has set off a factional fight at the top in Beijing. The Communist party suppressed all reports of the protests in the mainland’s media, while censors ripped out photographs and reports from foreign publications.

Today the protests will broaden to include Roman Catholic church leaders and other religious groups which fear restrictions on their freedom if China introduces security laws like its own. Bishop Joseph Zen, the leader of Hong Kong’s influential Catholic community, will address the rally.

The city’s embattled democracy campaigners, frozen out of political life since the handover, now sense the wind in their sails. “It’s always been a myth to say Chinese people don’t want democracy,” said Martin Lee, a barrister and leading light in the Democratic party.

Last Wednesday the legislative council building was encircled in a peaceful candlelit vigil. “See how responsible Chinese people can be,” said Teddy Ho, 34, who was there with his two small sons. “Yet Beijing is terrified of anyone expressing themselves.”

After the handover China reversed the trend towards full democracy encouraged by Patten. Tung was selected by a hand-picked committee and only 24 out of 60 seats on the legislative council are directly elected by Hong Kong’s 3m voters.

But one political miscalculation after another over the economy and public health issues has compounded the woes of Tung’s administration, which is widely regarded as a clique of rich people out of touch with reality.

Regina Ip, the British-trained civil servant in charge of the security legislation, drew sharp criticism after she said the law was “intended for the scrutiny of experts, not taxi drivers, restaurant waiters and McDonald’s staff”.

In fact, many highly educated Hong Kongers are flipping hamburgers at fast-food restaurants because jobs have been scarce since the property and stock market bubbles burst at the end of the 1990s.

Ip, 52, also inadvertently gave ammunition to civil liberty campaigners by admitting the authorities kept a blacklist of people deemed undesirable by China. Even pro-Beijing politicians are now suggesting she must go.

Resentment on the streets was fuelled by the revelation that the financial secretary, Antony Leung, saved himself more than £15,000 by buying a luxurious Lexus saloon six weeks before he imposed hefty new vehicle taxes. Leung, a 51-year-old multi-millionaire who formerly chaired the Asia-Pacific division of JP Morgan Chase, offered to resign — but Tung saw no need.

Tung, 66, may now be seen by some around the new Chinese leader, Hu Jintao, as a political fossil. He was chosen to lead Hong Kong by Jiang Zemin, who has given way to Hu as president and party leader. Tung’s fate may become the latest weapon in a power struggle between the new rulers and loyalists to the former president.

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