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World climate experts have issued their bleakest forecasts yet on the effects of climate change, predicting that it will inflict damage on every continent but hit the world's poor disproportionately hard.
In a 1,400-page report, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned that almost a third of the world's species could be wiped out by global warming.
The report's accompanying summary was agreed this morning after experts and officials wrapped up a week of talks in Brussels with a marathon 24-hour negotiating session. Delegates said that the United States, China and Saudi Arabia provoked charges of political interference by objecting to the scientists' tough wording.
Some scientists even vowed never to take part in the process again. “The authors lost,” said one, who did not want to be named because the process is confidential. “A lot of authors are not going to engage in the IPCC process anymore. I have had it with them.”
“But don’t be misled,” added another source. “The data is all there in the main report -- this is a very strong message."
The IPCC said that damage to Earth’s weather systems from greenhouse gases will change rainfall patterns, punch up the power of storms and boost the risk of drought, flooding and stress on water supplies.
This will have consequences that, according to the level of carbon pollution that stokes global warming, will be adverse or, in some scenarios, even catastrophic. Those consequences range from increased famine in Africa to thawing glaciers in the Himalayas.
“Poor people are the most vulnerable and will be the worst hit by the impacts of climate change. This becomes a global responsibility,” Rajendra Pachauri, the IPCC's chairman, declared.
Up to 30 per cent of animal and plant species will be vulnerable to extinction if global temperatures rise by 1.5-2.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 to 4.5 Fahrenheit), the IPCC said. No continent can expect to be unscathed by even a relatively modest increase in temperatures.
“It is very likely that all regions will experience either declines in benefits or increases in costs for increases in temperature greater than 2 to 3 degrees” (C), or 3.6-5.4 F, over 1990 levels, according to a “summary for policymakers” agreed by the IPCC.
The IPCC report predicts that billions of people will face water scarcity and hundreds of millions are likely to go hungry, mainly in the poorest regions least to blame for spewing the fossil fuel pollution that scientists believe are driving up temperatures.
At US insistence, drafters of the summary dumped a paragraph that said North America was“expected to experience severe local economic damage and substantial ecosystem, social and cultural disruption”, delegates said.
Poor tropical countries will be hit worst, according to a draft of the main report.
Worsening water shortages in drought-prone countries, malnutrition caused by desiccated fields, property damage from extreme weather events and the spread of disease by mosquitoes and other vectors will amount to a punishing bill that is beyond the ability of vulnerable countries, especially in Africa, to pay.
Biodiversity and natural habitat are in for a hammering. Even a modest increase in temperatures will bleach many coral reefs, reduce part of eastern Amazonia to a parched savannah, thaw swathes of the northern hemisphere’s permafrost, change seasons for plant pollination and animal reproduction.
The report is part of the IPCC’s first assessment in six years of the evidence for climate change. In the first volume of this review, issued in February, the IPCC said Earth’s temperature had already risen by 0.74 C (1.33 F) in the past century.
By 2100, it could rise by between 1.1 C (1.98 F) and 6.4 C (11.52 F) compared to 1980-99 levels, with a likely range of 1.8 C to 4.0 C (3.2-7.2 F).
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Nice to see a majority of Yanks fail to see what it going on in our world today.....when will they see that they are a major contributor to the enviroment that they are wrecking...but hey nothing that a few spin articles on CNN can't cure eh?
Matt Benton, Eugmo, Finland
Can you imagine where we are headed if the IPCC ends up with someone like Wolfowitz (World Bank) at its head??? Then again, isn't that exactly how we arrivied in this predicament???
Douglas Chalmers, Melbourne,
Wow, I'd bury my head in the sand but it seems like the beach is already full.
OK, general trite remarks about models aside (as it's pretty clear that certain gases block certain IR wavelengths), as I've always said with regard to this general environment issue, theoretically, it can happen, and I'd prefer to have some money invested in case we suddenly in trouble. I'd prefer that, making the most of a potential reprieve, than sitting around on my high horse all the time.
The fact this that there are plenty of other reasons beside global warming to reduce fossil fuels (toxicity, and the ozone layer anyone?) People also seem very unaware that water vapour is actually worse than CO2 at trapping heat....
Another article on this site at the moment (Matthew Parris) shows a good idea of installing heat pumps to heat your home. The same ignorance, stupidity and cynicism is being displayed there. Say what you like, but when the ice age comes I'll be burning your SUV to keep warm.
Martin E, St Andrews, Scotland
"If the temperature rises by 6.4 degrees by 2100 we're all dead. 4.0 would be bad enough. Bill Linton, London,"
You are in London and I am in Texas, much hotter than you are ... how come we Texans are not dead?
Consider also that to get the temperature rise they need the water vapor feedback effect. Increased water vapor cycling means increased precipitation. Combined with higher CO2 elvels, which have a fertilization effect on plant life, this equates to more biomass. Plants will thrive!
Pat, Austin, TX, USA
John of Dorset, are you sure CO2 emissions are the reason for global warming? I'm not and neither are many others as no absolute proof exists
R Stevens, Newlyn,
Well, we're all in deep trouble then, because by the time the politicians have forced all of their hokey anti-global warming initiatives down our throats we'll all be poor.
C Heathcote, Tonbridge,
It is very sad to read some of the comments written by people from the US. specially which say that global warming is a joke or it is not true - I can't believe how much ignorance from them!
The US., country where I went to school and I have travelled a lot to and therefore I love it, has recognize the problem of global warming as it is - a path to world destruction.
The US. the worst polluter in the world has to take the environmental measures necessary to reduce CO2 levels back to where they were in the 70's!
Please begin by being "green" at home.
Andres, Guayaquil, Ecuador
The only evidence put forward in support of extreme manmade global warming over the next hundred years is from computer models.
The public needs to know that models are not predictions.
Don't take my word for it. As famous physicist Enrico Fermi once told another famous British physicist Freeman Dyson
quoting Jonny Von Neuman " with four parameters I can fit an Elephant and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk."
John Leeson, Calgary, Canada
Why should the British people (as well as peoples of Europe) have to make huge economic sacrifices, ('green taxes, more expensive petrol, and air travel) to curb greenhouse gases, whilst developing nations such as China and India show no desire to curb their own??
According to the report; "World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2006", released by the International Energy Agency (IEA). Carbon dioxide emissions from China could pass those from the United States as early as 2009.
These surging greenhouse gas emissions in China underscore objections to the Kyoto Protocol voiced by the U.S., Russia, and Australia: that the Protocol will be ineffective so long as developing nations such as China and India are exempt from the treaty.
Until China and India, with the United States sign up to Kyoto Protocol. The United Kingdom should withdraw from the treaty.
u c kerk, malden,
I read a comment from a person in Texas (forgot his name) that says that Al Gore's documental it's not true . Incredible, as long as people like him do not realize global warming it will not help to address the problem effectively. I studied my whole career (University) in the US. and I travel over there whenever I can because I like the US as well as other countries. But it is a SHAME to say that the US. is the main polluter of the whole world. I hope that the US. worries about it and exert more pressure towards its Government to comply with International weather Agreements such as Kyoto!
Regards,
Andres , Guayaquil , Ecuador
dear friends..... at this moment i would like to have your attention to the eternal truth,that as the apparitions took place in Fatima (Portugal)centuries ago warned the world that if it goes on unheeded to the words of god world will suffer for the sins of the people all innocent will suffer that is the punishment awaiting ahead so please be loyal to yourself......god needs penance for our and for others as well so please have a look in to ourself and think where we are and what we are !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! one thing is predicted and its sure the hell is true and a final day will come and justice and judgment will be there..................
john paul, newport, uk
Since we do not know how many plant and animal species there are on Earth, how is the figure of 30% arrived at?
John Vincent, Christchurch,
I'm no expert in this field but I do have enough logic to realize that, the fact that global warming is a joke. Earth has been around for Billions of years. Humans have been studying Earth for a few thousand years, and we think we know everything about it. Why is that? Why is it, when something isn't turning out the way it should that we have to diagnose everything that is wrong with anything?
Jarred Godwin, Ames, IA
Never has so much money been spent on hysteria!. We cannot, and do not affect the climate of this planet!! The planet Mars is also warming up. Did we do that too? St Al Gore the Green is the best snake -oil man in the business.
Re the title of the article, you forget the 'children '. Of course the poor suffer, they do not have the resources of the rich. Wasting scarce resources on this garbage will not help them either. But, then it is not about them. It is the vision of the anointed that must be placated.
Desmond Taylor, Houston, TX
CO2 is blamed, 300 parts per million, or 0.03%. Although CO2 in very high concentration could have an effect in creating a heath blanket, it is obvious to anyone familiar with lows of thermodynamics that this minute proportion of CO2 could not make, not only any significant but any measurable difference.
The global temperature has oscillated going back millions of years (polar ice data), and according to data available current temperatures are near a peak and are likely to go fraction higher, before onset of next cooling. It is fortunate that heating periods are much faster than cooling, otherwise within next millennium we could be heading towards another ice age, which on any account could be far disastrous for our decedents.
It is good to cut pollution, it is admirable to preserve resources but whatever it is done with CO2 emissions the effect will be negligible.
A. Novak, London, UK
The earths temp.has risen 1.33F in the last one hundred years. The temp. on Mars has risen 1.17F from the 1970s to the 1990s . Mars temp. must have gone up because of the probes that man sent there. We are the cause of the changes everywhere and must feel shame and spend trillons on dollars ,pounds and yen to overcome our past misdeeds to earth and all other orbs in space.The shame of it all. By the way ,the fact is that over half of all corbon dioxide on earth is produced by termites . Time for all of us to start using more terminex. We should also save as much oil as possible for the future so we can then burn it like crazy to stave off the next ice age. Please do your part.
tom hardy, elk grove, usa
If the temperature rises by 6.4 degrees by 2100 we're all dead. 4.0 would be bad enough.
Bill Linton, London,
My goodness, we may be witnessing the first ground-breaking scientific discovery of the 21st century: climate is changing!! And thus ends the report -more or less: give us more money for we have to continue 'researching' and alarming the world about impending catastrophes.
Interestingly the report also concludes that poor nations will be hit the hardest. No doubt about that if the green cult gets away with proposed impositions and dictamens about how developing nations should develop or how should millions of citizens be lifted from poverty.
aleksander boyd, london, uk
If the report had concluded: The Rich will suffer the most, becoming most likely just like the middle class then intense action would start tomorrow to correct the problem. Characterised as a problem of the poor, the report basically signals to most adults that its not a "real problem" and perhaps even an opportunity for charitable tax donations. Life as you know it is ending is a message much more likely to generate action than Someone who you clearly dont care much about will be worse off. Hopefully whoever is minding the Global Warming PR effort will realize that "guilt" isn't going to sell the message as well as "fear." Nothing serious will happen until global warming becomes a "security" issue.
Tom, Göteborg, Sweden
Poor countries have high birth rate funded by foundations and World Bank. Their higher birth rate shows they have greater well being than we do. So they should compensate us for the global warming and mass extinction of species they cause.
Old Atlantic, Atlantic City, NJ
The burning of fossil fuels is only part of the problem.The main problem is the very rapid POPULATION growth over the past century.If the world population growth had been more linear over the past couple of centuries,global warming may not even have become a subject discussed today.After all, if there were half as many people burning these fuels,it would be the same as cutting emissions in half.Back in the "Sixtys" DR. Paul Erlich wrote a book entitled "The population bomb" and most labeled him an alarmist.In this book he foretold most accurately most all the social ,economical and ecological problems we see around the globe today.If we as a species today wish to survive,we must stop wasting time and money on wars and join together as a single race to slow down the effects of this warming in the near future as many scientists feel that the "wheels are already in motion" and the effects cannot be totally reversed.We in the US must learn to respect the work of the worlds scientists.
Richard Karp, Blanca,Co., USA
My Local Authority (Dorset County Council) has just approved a plan to build a new bypass that their own engineers have stated will result in a net increase in CO2 emissions. That fact has been one of the reasons behind the many objections to the scheme. (Objections made up 75% of the responses to the planning application)
One of councillors who voted for the new road stated that he "didn't really know what this climate change think is all about". Ye Gods!
When is the UK government (and indeed all UK political parties) actually going to put their warm words into action, and ensure that such important matters are taken out of the hands of bumbling local Bureaucrats who are unable to comprehend the consequences of their actions? Just to add to the stupidity, the Planning Committee were approving their own Planning Application!
John, Weymouth, Dorset,
Global warming is real, but it is also real with the Martian CO2 icecaps melting. It is from the Sun, not human activity.
John D. Froelich, Upper Darby, Pa
So we're all screwed then........lets thrash the gaff !!
Bergerac, St Hellier , Jersey