Climate change is hitting Australia hard. Record-breaking heatwaves, droughts and wildfires have scorched much of the south, while northern regions have faced severe cyclones and torrential downpours.

The big concern is how much warmer Australia’s weather is getting: 2005 was the hottest year on record, and last year was not far behind. Temperatures have risen by about 1C (1.8F) since the 1950s, faster than the global average. Many regions are withering under an unprecedented drought that has lasted up to ten years.

The outlook looks grim, with Victoria heading for its driest April yet and little sign of rain for the rest of this month and possibly even up to June. Even an average winter’s rainfall would not restore water reserves.

But Australia’s climate has long teetered on a knife-edge. Its huge expanse of desert and scrubland, erratic rains, and population squeezed into relatively narrow coastal strips make it highly vulnerable to changes in climate. Being a huge island also makes it very sensitive to the surrounding oceans, and especially to bouts of the El Niño pattern in the Pacific that usually deliver punishing droughts to the east.

But El Niño should not confuse the issue: rainfall has been declining for 50 years and the drying pattern is continuing even though there is no El Niño at present. In fact, the drought in the Murray-Darling river basin — which provides three quarters of the country’s water — is reckoned to be the worst in 1,000 years. No wonder Australians are calling this the “Big Dry”.

Climate change is predicted to bring even more punishing heat, drought and wildfires this century, threatening population centres and prime farmland. Parts of the country may have to be abandoned.

John Howard would do well to pray for rains for the next hundred years at least.

Explore World News

• World Agenda

• Iraq News

• US & Americas News

• Europe News

• Middle East News

• Afghanistan News

• Asia News

• Africa News

• Ireland News

Times Recommends

• Times Charity Appeal: SolarAid
• Is it Black Monday all over again for Dubai?
• Behind the scenes at the biggest deal