Paul Simons
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Climate change is hitting Australia hard. Record-breaking heatwaves, droughts and wildfires have scorched much of the south, while northern regions have faced severe cyclones and torrential downpours.
The big concern is how much warmer Australia’s weather is getting: 2005 was the hottest year on record, and last year was not far behind. Temperatures have risen by about 1C (1.8F) since the 1950s, faster than the global average. Many regions are withering under an unprecedented drought that has lasted up to ten years.
The outlook looks grim, with Victoria heading for its driest April yet and little sign of rain for the rest of this month and possibly even up to June. Even an average winter’s rainfall would not restore water reserves.
But Australia’s climate has long teetered on a knife-edge. Its huge expanse of desert and scrubland, erratic rains, and population squeezed into relatively narrow coastal strips make it highly vulnerable to changes in climate. Being a huge island also makes it very sensitive to the surrounding oceans, and especially to bouts of the El Niño pattern in the Pacific that usually deliver punishing droughts to the east.
But El Niño should not confuse the issue: rainfall has been declining for 50 years and the drying pattern is continuing even though there is no El Niño at present. In fact, the drought in the Murray-Darling river basin which provides three quarters of the country’s water is reckoned to be the worst in 1,000 years. No wonder Australians are calling this the “Big Dry”.
Climate change is predicted to bring even more punishing heat, drought and wildfires this century, threatening population centres and prime farmland. Parts of the country may have to be abandoned.
John Howard would do well to pray for rains for the next hundred years at least.
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Everywhere around the world the Global Warming is showing its effects, by reaching records that were not expected. In my opinion, oceans have a big saying in this effects, more than pollution or energy consumption do.
Adrianne, Timisoara,
As your article says, Australia has a drought and, because it has delayed appropriate management of the situation, also has a water shortage.
For some work I was doing on management solutions, I did comparisons of 30 year averages over 130 years. Taking one location as an example, www.egrants.com.au/rainfall_wyndham.gif, the variability you refer to is evident ... but I could not find the declining rainfall trend I was looking for.
I believe that increased use of the water we have makes us more vulnerable to variations in supply, and that we need better management of what we can control: usage.
Lloyd Bunting, Melbourne, Australia
The Australian government has allowed the indescriminate clearing of the land for farming for 200 years, it has also allowed farmers to drain rivers and destroy any environment that farmers wanted.
martin, London, England
As an Ozzie let me correct you. this is not the 'worst drought in 1000 years'! records for rainfall have only been kept for less than 150 years. this comment was made some months ago by a grandstanding stupid Ozzie politician (they all seem to be the same no matter where you live). he was promptly corrected by scientists, so i am surprised your reporter repeated his comment.
Anton, Perth, Australia
Alan Unsworth's comment (above) about running canals to the interior is not without precedent.
Back in the 1950's there was a "pipe-dream" proposal along similar lines to build a mountain range - high enough to trap eastward-bound moist airflow - through part of the central area of Australia. The idea was proposed by the then head of the Snowy Mountains Hydro-Electric Authority.
There were also suggestions made - again in the 1950's - to explode a series of A-bombs from the Great Australian Bight up into the salt lake region of South Australia. The resulting excavations would then be filled with seawater and the interior would become habitable due to the resulting wetter climate being created.
Maybe they weren't so stupid after all.
Kennewell, Canberra, Australia
Under the circumstances, the Aussies would be justified in trying to reverse global warming. Here are two radical solutions: iron dumping (in the ocean) and sulfur dioxide dispersion (in the atmosphere). Either one might work, and both are better options than dying of thirst.
Alan Unsworth, Rochester, USA, New York
Apparently Australia had a small inland sea a few 10s of thousands of years ago. Maybe they should think about running a few canals to the coast and refilling the basin... wouldnt that have a beneficial effect on the climate?
Prof. Brainstorm, London, UK
I'm in Adelaide coastal city of 1 million, desert to north, dry pasture to east and south (sea to west). We rely on the Murray River that arises in the Australian Alps on the NSW/Victoria border and its tributrary the Darling R via NSW from Qld.
If endless blue skys continue in this most Indian summer where our European garden trees have dead leaves not because of Autumn but because they've died of thirst - then we are in deep st.
The Murray has only 1,400 gigalitres of flow left this year unless drenching rains soak the soils enough for run-off into it. Evaporation from Murray in Sth Aust alone is 1,300 GL/yr. Adelaide uses 300 GL/yr (200 GL from piped water supply and 100GL from declining aquifers and recycled water). Dams for 125 GL in the Adelaide Hills are at record lows. Expensive recycling and desalination plants years away.
Y'day the Prime Minister said water for irrigation in the Murray/Darling basin - Australia's food bowl - will cease July, and pray for rain.
ruckrover, Adelaide, Australia
Big Dry is right.
I've just returned from Britain to country Victoria and was shocked by the state of the land.
Now it's been announced by the government that farmers who irrigate from the Murray Darling Basin won't be allowed to this year unless we get some good rainfall. Which nobody is predicting - hence Mr Howard's 'Pray for rain' comment.
People are soon going to be seeing the implications of such a dire situation - scarce and very pricey fruit and veg. Not to mention many farmers going to the wall.
Kimberley, Albury/Wodonga, VICTORIA
Australia is dying, we can expect reverse immigration from Australia over the next few years
e pryor, gravesend,