Charles Bremner, of The Times, in Paris
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French voters today sent Nicolas Sarkozy and Ségolène Royal into the two-week run-off for the presidency, confounding the hopes of their centrist and far-Right challengers in the most closely contested campaign for decades.
Mr Sarkozy, 52, who is promising radical reform to haul France out of stagnation, led with 30 per cent of the votes cast on a glorious spring day, according to estimates from the TF1 television network.
Ms Royal, 53, whose unorthodox campaign unsettled many on the left, won solid endorsement from her own camp with a respectable 25.5 per cent.
Crowds cheered “Ségo Président” tonight outside her constituency home at Melle, in western France, as her Socialist party, led by Francois Hollande, her partner, breathed a sigh of relief that she had survived the threat of elimination.
In Paris, Mr Sarkozy urged supporters chanting “Sarko Président” to assume nothing in what would be an extremely tough race.
Reacting to his partner’s score, Mr Hollande said that France would now have to choose between “the candidate of the outgoing government and Ségolène Royal, the candidate of change.” He added: “Ségolène Royal now has a new dynamic for success.”
A near-record turn-out of more than 80 per cent reflected the intense interest in a campaign that will see a new, reform-minded generation taking power in France, five years after President Chirac’s bitter re-election against Jean-Marie Le Pen of the far right.
Despite an unusually high 30 percent of undecided voters in the last week, the run-off to May 6 has turned out to be a classical Right-Left duel between champions of France’s two big parties, the Union for a Popular Majority, which Mr Sarkozy took over from President Chirac, and the Socialist party, which last held the presidency under the late Francois Mitterrand.
Francois Fillon, a former cabinet minister who is likely to become Prime Minister under a President Sarkozy, said “democracy is the big winner today because the French people have come back to politics”.
François Bayrou, 55, the centrist who had threatened to overtake Ms Royal, earned just over 18 percent, a strong score for a third candidate but a blow for his attempt to forge a “third way” revolution in French politics. The biggest disappointment was suffered by Jean-Marie Le Pen, 78, the veteran National Front boss, who scored only about 11.5 percent. This was far below the 17 percent that took him into the second round in the 2002 elections, eliminating the Socialist candidate.
Invested with an aura of success, Ms Royal will now strive to relaunch a campaigh that had faltered since January following an earlier phase when she was hailed as a potential saviour of the nation. The Socialist will now benefit from enthusiastic backing from her own party and many in the centre who see Mr Sarkozy as a dynamic leader but fear his divisive personality.
The winner on May 6 will succeed President Chirac, who leaves the Elysee Palace in Mid-May after 12 years in office.
To reach the Elysee, Mr Sarkozy must broaden his appeal beyond the conservative-minded public who support his plans for radical economic and social reform to “restore the value of work” and bring France up to speed with its more market-friendly neighbours. He will stress his experience as Interior Minister for most of the past five years while also attempting to project a more gentle face.
For many left-leaning and younger French, especially those of immigrant origin, Mr Sarkozy is an object of intense dislike because of his harsh rhetoric and tough policing methods as Interior Minister. Unless Ms Royal inspires new fire with her so far lacklustre campaign, the run-off will amount to a referendum on Mr Sarkozy, say many commentators.
Discontent with the big parties was reflected not just with Mr Le Pen’s estimated 11 percent, but also the 10 percent of the vote which went to four anti-capitalist candidates of the far left and Dominique Voynet of the Green party.
The big question in the second round will be the choice of first-round voters who backed Mr Bayrou, a former member of centre-right governments who recast himself as a centrist opposed to both Left and Right. A small majority of his supporters are said by pollsters to have been leftwing sympathisers who had doubts over Ms Royal.
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