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Tackling global warming need not cost the Earth, a panel of UN scientists said today.
In the third in a series of reports, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), said that keeping the rise in temperatures to within 2C would cost only 0.12 per cent of annual gross domestic product if governments exploited new technologies to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
“It’s a low premium to pay to reduce the risk of major climate damage,” Bill Hare, a Greenpeace adviser who co-authored the report, told Reuters news agency after the culmination of marathon negotiations which ran over their four-day schedule.
“If we continue to do what we are doing now, we are in deep trouble,” added Ogunlade Davidson, co-chair of the IPCC, which includes experts from some 120 nations.
“This report is all about solutions to climate change."
To keep within the 2C threshold that scientists say is needed to stave off disastrous changes to the world’s climate, emissions of carbon dioxide need to drop between 50 and 85 per cent by 2050, the report said.
However, technological advances - particularly in producing and using energy more efficiently - meant such targets were within reach. The reprot highlighted the use of nuclear, solar and wind power, more energy-efficient buildings and lighting, as well as capturing and storing carbon dioxide spewed from coal-fired power stations and oil and gas rigs.
The panel also said for the first time that lifestyle changes could help fight global warming. It gave no examples, but the IPCC chairman Rajendra Pachauri said his personal suggestions included turning down the thermostat and eating less red meat, which could reduce animal methane emissions. “These are lifestyle measures but you are not going to give up anything and you might gain,” he said.
The IPCC report presented a best-case scenario of limiting global warming to 2.0-2.4C (3.6-4.3F), generally recognised as the threshold when the most extreme ravages of climate change will begin.
Ramping up use of new technologies that do not emit greenhouse gases, increasing energy efficiency and other methods to achieve this target would shave less than 0.12 per cent off world economic growth each year. To keep global warming in the best-case range, nations have to make sure that greenhouse gases - blamed for most of the world’s rising temperature - must start declining by 2015.
The report said that greenhouse emissions would have to be cut to between 50 and 85 per cent of year 2000 levels by 2050, and urged the greater use of renewable energy sources such as solar, wind and hydro-power.
But throughout the week, delegates taking part in the closed-door talks said, there was strong opposition to emissions caps led by China, which fears a slowdown in its surging economic growth.
Despite the haggling, however, negotiators and environmental groups insisted that the final report had not been watered down for political reasons. “It came out much better than we thought,” said Stephan Singer, a climate and energy specialist from WWF. “This is a victory of science over the fossil fuel industry (and) economic sceptics."
The report is the third and last from the IPCC this year, after the first two looked into the evidence and looming devastating impacts of global warming.
Nuclear power, which was one of the points of debate, was also highlighted as one option global policymakers should consider. Another important element was making people and industry pay for using fossil fuels - helping to reduce the relative cost of renewable energies.
In some cases, the panel said, technology could bring substantial benefits, such as cutting health costs by tackling pollution. Even changing planting times for rice or managing cattle and sheep flocks better could cut emissions of methane, another powerful greenhouse gas.
The IPCC's two previous reports painted a grim picture of human-induced global warming causing more hunger, droughts, heatwaves and rising sea levels which would drown low-lying islands.
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The amount of moisture in the air is a function of the over-all temperature of the earth's surface, not it's cause. The rising CO2 level is raising this temperature, hence more moisture, more rains, snow, floods and violent storms. No way to avoid this truth and that it is our use of fossil fuels that has raised, is raising, this level.
The humidity level fluctuates locally, and constantly, between zero to 50%. The CO2 does not fluctuate this way but remains indefinitely, only increasing until it is removed by lower life forms on the earth. The only feasible way we can bring it back to former levels is to increase life in the soils, mainly grasslands, not forests. The cessation of adding more CO2 of course must also stop. There are ways we can do both. First we must fully acknowledge the cause of the problem. Denial will not serve us.
The free pdf download http://www.yeomansplow.com.au/priority-one-contents.htm
is a great exposition of the earth science behind these ideas.
Gerald Brittell, Lancaster, Virginia / USA
Non-sense; there is lots of good scientific evidence (specifically from ice cores) which plainly suggests that historical warming trends PRECEDE elevated levels of atmospheric CO2 (by 7-800 years), not the other way around.
Besides, water vapor is the MOST potent greenhouse gas, not CO2.
RationalAmericam, Denver, CO
The CO2 in earth's atmosphere almost alone determines the temperature on its surface. All other factors pale in significance. A suitable CO2 level for our form of life came about through gradual sequestration of CO2 by lower life forms in the oceans and then the land. We have surpassed that concentration in record time.
It is thought by many that the granddaddy of all extinctions, the PTr event, (and others) were caused by temperatures on the ocean floors tipping off the melting of methane hydrates. All methane soon converts to CO2. Such an event would make all rice-paddy, swamp-land, and animal gas of no account whatsoever. We are talking 95+% extinction rates in the past, and we do not have thousands of years to adjust as before.
Now, what kind of 'economic impact' would such conditions have on ALL nations, including, and especially China? Economics or no, we can not take chances, even if it means cutting off use of all fossil fuels. Huge economic impacts of GW are already here!
Gerald A. Brittell, Lancaster, Virginia
Ok, so China and India (who will soon far outstrip all greenhouse emissions of the West) are expected to pay for this high technology? Do they really have the incentive to do this? Is it not hypocritical of us to expect them to sacrifice their right to develop because we messed ours up? Seeing as about 20% of human greenhouse emissions are from Rice Paddies (Dorling Kindersley statistic) I doubt that small cuts will have any effect. 85% cuts! NO CHANCE! The world is still undergoing massive growth, growth needs fuel. Anyone that expects those goals to be attainable is either idealistic, or supports destroying the worlds economy and putting many Asians out on the streets in the process. OUT ON THE STREETS YOU HEAR ME?! Now, why don't we look at more productive problems such as AIDs and Poverty, we could actually have a huge impact on these.
Edward, Belfast, Ireland (North)
With one after another world-wide announcement made about global warming, one fresh and hopeful note has yet to be sounded. There is a well understood, proven way, at low cost, and with many other benefits, to sequester the excess CO2 that man has placed into the atmosphere ... re-establish the fertility and vitality of our soils while we stop using fossil carbons as our energy source and in agricultural products. We already know how to do this, and in a surprisingly short time. It will only be those with vested interests in fossil fuels that can keep us thinking that there are not other alternatives. A very large cause of the excess CO2 has been the destruction of both macro and micro life in our soils and water by use of fossil carbon products in agriculture. Allan C.Yeomans, a respected agriculturist in Australia has convincingly written about this in a very readable book titled Priority One, Together We Can Beat Global Warming. .downloadable free online.
Gerald A Brittell, Lancaster, USA / Virginia
Desmond, you need to turn on your sarcasm detector. Do you really think Rev. Butter wants to go extinct?
Wingnut, communism is built on the concept of slavery. Slavery to everyone around you, slavery to your government, and slavery to anyone who has less than you or "needs" something you have that they don't. Every communist society in the world has failed, has left its people in ruins, or has finally discovered "market economy" aka China's version of capitalism. You also forget that communist countries have even more environmental problems than first world countries. Starvation in Russia, starvation in China, sandstorms in Beijing, and floods or droughts along various rivers in China are just the beginnings of the ruins Communism has left behind.
John, Miami, FL, USA
Does Desmond Taylor really imagine that any halfway-competent climate scientist never thought about what effect water vapour would have? Let alone 2000 of them?
As it happens, water vapour is a greenhouse gas, so it causes warming, not cooling. And no, I'm not even a halway-competent climate scientist, just someone who has read a book or two on the subject - a practice I recommend to anyone thinking of commenting on it.
Bill Linton, London,
nicely put wingnut. yes capitalism is just one paradigm for the functioning of the planet, and one that most thoughtful free thinking people are gradually understanding has its limits. Any economic system that has the destruction of the environment we all depend on as its criteria for advancement is got to be avoided. But we have to start living, being and thinking in a different way, and that is our greatest challenge. I don't want to get all sentimental about caring and sharing but we do have to start thinking about more than the bottom line. There are wonderful guidelines in many of the worlds great religious and philosophical writings. We can turn this around and learn to live happily without destroying the place.
ravi, vrindavan, India
It would appear that the Rev Butter is a Priest of the new Religion, Eco-Wacko.!! Does he buy his carbon eucharist from St Al Gore the living Prophet of the new Religion.? As a Socialist he reminds me of the 'Red Dean' of Canterbury, Dr Hugh Hewiit. Wonderfall man. but as mad as a March Hare. By the way, with regard to the article, have you noticed that no-one is talking about the water vapour in the atmosphere. As the Earth's surface is 70% water, do any-one think it does not have COOLING effect.
Desmond Taylor, Houston, USA Texas
Capitalism has nothing to do with freedom. It certainly has nothing to do with letting anyone have there say.
A veteran, Denver, CO
Sirs,
The UN is using a technique recommended in a volume I read some years ago. It was entitled "How to lie with Statistics" It is to use a small percentage of a very large number. Twelve one hundredths of World GDP exceeds 5334 billions of dollars.
Wallace Edward Brand, Alexandria, Virgnia, USA
I completely agree. God (our imagined Earth-creator) loathes progress and those that would value rewarding individual effort. Only if we work together can we stagnate, only by defying nature's lessons on natural selection and competition can we truly find freedom through extinction. We must protect our Christian kingdom from those of us who defy conformity as well as outsiders who believe differently. Our God is a single minded god demanding obedience, punishing diversity and progress as the greatest sin to his ONLY way. Only through the removal of capitalism/economies can we eliminate cost and price, and thus eliminate the ability to fairly distribute goods - we must cease to commit the sin of individual equity!
Rev. Butter, Hometown, USA
Sirs,
Some people just can't acknowledge that Communism failed. Wingnut of Minneapolis appears to be one of them.
Wallace Edward Brand, Alexandria, Virgnia, USA
Of course, without capitalism and freedom, "Wingut" wouldn't have this platform with which to spew his stark-raving lunacy. I'd like to see "Wingut" and his socialist/slavery ilk produce anything of value without "cost". Government cheese, anyone?
Rational American, Denver, CO
There's NO COST to cleaning up the mess caused by building crappy non-reuseable products via capitalism... IF we just REMOVE capitalism/economies. This way, nothing has a cost, nothing has a price, nothing "orders" a group of slaves into trying to fix planet burn. It all comes down to dedication to continuence of loved planet. But capitalists don't love the planet or people, they just love shopping and sweets... and "winning", financially. Capitalists just keep watching those Bloomberg numbers for upward movement, and fail to watch the Jesus numbers for planet destruction and humankind unhappiness. Giant pyramid schemes of servitude... such as capitalism/imperialism... tend to be that way. As soon as we all drop the notion that competition is healthy (gov/Mason rules) and get back to KNOWING that cooperation is the ONLY way (Earth-creator's rules)... we'll be on the right track again. The planet/people burning... is CAUSED by rat-racing for dollars and making crappy products.
Wingnut, Minneapolis, mn
Carbon dioxide emmissions = Population x Average carbon dioxide emmissions. Hence population should be controlled. Secondly, average carbon dioxide emmissions could be controlled by energy rationing. In addition,Government could do far more to reduce the emmissions they make on our behalf. On the military front, getting out of Iraq and Afghanistan would save huge amounts of energy. At home adjusting activity to daylight could bring savings.
Barry Crossland, Elland, West Yorkshire
I blame the situation we are in on the environmental movement. As dedicated obstructionists they have opposed all viable options to alternatives energies. Hydroelectric and nuclear power are essentially emission free sources of power generation that can be converted to hydrogen production. The environmental movement has vehemently and blindly opposed both at great cost to human race.
Bill W, Dixon, USA / IL
The real issue is not too many people but too many people overconsuming (including overpackaging, etc) and too little reuse. We could have many times the population if we did not burn oil as, say, USA citizens. For that to happen, they need a democrat president who will not be afraid to top up oil taxation (which in turn will induce innovation in the industry, partiularly cars, which would need to learn to improve efficiency).
A healthy modern lifestyle does not need to involve throwing glass, paper and batteries into the bin, or putting the heating at max while opening the windows. Along with technology, we need a cultural change i.e. something like a hippie three letter - eco - revolution.
Population control, I agree, is important too, but is not at this present moment the vital factor (but will be in the future).
Good luck to us all!
Victorovitch, Cambridge, UK
ALL the estimates about the so-called effect of humans on the Earth are missing one crucial item. Has anyone estimated the effect of water vapour on these models. Earth is 70% water, and these clowns do not mention it.
Desmond Taylor, Houston, USA Texas
The IPCC is purely political and the that panel has complete say over what is talked about, what the slant of the agenda will be, and whom they choose to write the briefs which the panel will comb through and review.
The problem is that there isn't even one documented climate expert on the ICPP board, they're international selectees of the UN to sit on this panel, yet they are given absolute control over what we read as "expert" climate analysis.
They pick and choose who will research and if you're contrary to the opinion they want, they will not allow you to participate. It's completely political, not scientific, therefore it's a sham.
M.Paul, Springfield, usa
I can add nothing more to J King's comments. It is SO obvious and yet the green experts create this futile and incredibly expensive hysteria and ignore the real solution.
Jerry Perkins, Mendoza, Argentina
Changing lifestyles, perhaps by abandoning having conferences in exotic parts of the world and instead having video conferences?
Chris, Surrey,
Slam the brakes on a bus going 120 to stop on a dime?
What are these guys nuts?
Zero possibility of doing it with republicans knuckle dragging about costs to their precious corporate bosses. Maybe 'start reducing' after those corporations are two feet under water... but not in a purposeful, meaningful way.
No, the best thing you can do, is convert to the correct religion and save your immortal souls.
Weren't we working on solving that one?
kelly Burch, Coarsegold, Ca, USA, USA, USA!!
The REAL issue is - too many people. The carrying capacity of the Earth has been exceeded. We need to cut global population to about one billion and keep it there, if we want everyone in the foreseeable future to have a healthy modern human lifestyle, rather than living in squalor, ill-health and semi-starvation. If we merely use technology to "fix" the current situation without instituting effective and fair worldwide population control, population increase will very quickly negate any gains in greenhouse gas control and climate preservation made by technology.
J King, Philadelphia, PA USA