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He is the world’s most enduring conservative leader, a man of steel, in the words of George W. Bush. Yet, after more than a decade in office and, now, overseeing an economic boom of a scale barely seen before in Australia, John Howard appears to be heading for oblivion when the country votes tomorrow.
It could not only be the end of the Liberal-National coalition Government that he has led since 1996 but also, ignominiously, the loss of the seat of Bennelong in suburban Sydney that Mr Howard has represented for 33 years in the Australian Parliament.
Were he to lose his seat – and the polls say that it is likely - Mr Howard will be only the second prime minister in Australian history to find himself voted out of Parliament.
Yesterday he was battling to contain a scandal after Liberal campaigners were exposed distributing pamphlets accusing the Opposition of sympathising with terrorists. Howard supporters were caught delivering leaflets attributed to a bogus Islamic organisation that urged voters to support the opposition Labor Party because it approved of forgiving terrorists involved in the deadly 2002 Bali nightclub bombings.
“I do not believe that the Australian Labor Party has ever had sympathy for the Bali bombings, and I thought it was an outrageous thing to say,” Mr Howard said. “It was tasteless and offensive.”
It is a remarkable comedown for the big-spending populist. He is the diminutive 69-year-old who, memorably, turned the country’s SAS forces on a bunch of impoverished, ragged asylum-seekers before winning the 2001 election. He is the former solicitor who used his renowned capacity for fear-mongering to win the last election in 2004, when he mounted a scare campaign against the Labor Party’s ability to hold down interest rates. He is the hard-of-hearing grandad who prides himself on being in touch with the aspirations of ordinary Australians.
There is no single answer for John Howard’s rapidly declining popularity. Undoubtedly he has suffered poor luck. He has, however, also been the victim of his own unfortunate timing and misread the true level of support he enjoys among his colleagues. And he has stayed too long.
Mr Howard’s poor luck came in the middle of the six-week election campaign when the central Reserve Bank of Australia decided to increase interest rates just as he was declaring that only his Government could be trusted to run the economy. The rate increase was the sixth since the 2004 election, in which Mr Howard crushed Mark Latham, then Labor leader, by claiming that he lacked the experience to manage the economy.
After the latest increase, Mr Howard protested that his Government was a victim of its own economic success, which is partly true because the mining-led boom has fuelled inflation. This hardly blunted a claim by Kevin Rudd, the Labor leader, that the Prime Minister could no longer be trusted.
This week Mr Howard had the opportunity to revive his reelection chances at his party’s official campaign launch in Brisbane. He relied on his favourite late-campaign formula: the big spend. He offered another A$9.5 billion (£4 billion), taking the total value of his preelection promises to A$65 billion. Only two hours before Mr Howard’s speech, the Reserve Bank had given warning that further large increases in government spending would put yet more upward pressure on interest rates.
The economic commentary was scathing of Mr Howard’s tactics. That was why Mr Rudd attracted wild applause at his campaign launch two days later when he rejected the idea of further big spending promises by the Labor Party.
Finally, it was Mr Howard’s misreading of the support that he enjoyed from his ministers that forced him in September to declare that he would stand aside as Prime Minister during his next term if he won tomorrow’s election. He nominated Peter Costello, 50, his ambitious deputy and Treasurer, as his successor.
The Prime Minister’s declaration has turned him into a lame duck. It has allowed the Labor Party to argue that nothing Mr Howard promises for the future can be believed because he will not stay in the job. And attempts by Mr Howard and Mr Costello to portray a newfound sense of bonhomie during the campaign have appeared forced and unconvincing.
Mr Howard was still arguing yesterday that the Government could win the election, but with the coalition trailing heavily in the polls, he appeared a man going through the motions, without conviction.

Long innings at the top
— John Howard is the second longest-serving Prime Minister in Australia. The longest-serving was Robert Menzies, right, who held office twice for a total of 18 years
— During his ten years in power, Mr Howard has outlasted five Japanese prime ministers, including Junichiro Koizumi – Japan’s longest-serving prime minister since the mid1980s
— He has also seen off four Italian prime ministers, among them Silvio Berlusconi – who himself spent longer in office than any postwar Italian prime minister Tony Blair entered office a few months before Mr Howard was elected, and Gerhard Schröder’s entire seven years in power as German Chancellor came during his rule
— Since 1997, Australia have won the Ashes five times and lost once.
— The population of the country has risen by two million since that year
— In the same period the England football team have had six head coaches: from Glenn Hoddle (1996-1999) through to Steve McClaren (20062007)
Sources: Times archive; agencies
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John Howard's loss was expected. He has lied to the Australian since tkaing office and his disgusting grovelling to George W Bush made thinking Australians squirm. His place on the scrap heap of history is assured and deserved.
Barry Everingham, Malvern, Victoria, Australia
This article is way out of touch....interestiingly it comes from a paper that supported the UK Labour Party as while that government destroys the soul like PM Keating did in Australia. Immigration out of control, higher unemployment and rising, healthcare in the form of the NHS in absolute crisis even saying it is a dogs breakfast would be a compliment and the least said about eduaction the better. Australia you don't know how lucky you have it...so what if its 11.5 years...keep it going with Johnny. God forbid you have the sequal of the Lizard of Oz Paul Keating reincarnated in Kevin the Gerbil......
Scotty, Glasgow, Scotland
Maybe now Australia will have a government running the country instead of corporations and business who through the Liberal Party were able to to have all their wishes granted and do what ever they wanted.
Anne Shippec, Melbourne, Australia
Australians have a tradition of voting against the trend of polls at the last minute. Howard might be unpopular but the unionist buffoons and lakeys that sit on the shadow front bench, hitherto silent in the campaign, will be factored in by the electorate. Don't you worry about that...
Jake, Croydon, UK
Listening to some reports, they made a reference to a Tony Blair
type campaign by Labour. I hope they don't suffer the same fate
that is happening to Britain today ( massive increase in terrorists, over run by immigrates and incompetence on a grand scale,to name just a few things) . If only we could turn the clock back
11 years. You don't know what you have got, till it's gone.
A Walton, Leicester, England
Dear Mark,
The self loathing left is one of the reasons I stopped voting Labor. So Australia is:
"...small-minded, selfish, arrogant beyond its talents and abilities, inward-looking, fixed on comparing itself with an idealised vision of the past and unmindful of the challenges of the future."
It is this hatred for Australia that makes me concerned about any Labor Govt - with their media friends the urban elite wants to take charge and give the little people a good kicking. The people who get up in the morning, go to work and come home at night - buy a house in the suburbs which they keep clean, drive at the speed limit and take their children to sport over the weekend. That is the people who are the backbone of the country.
I give it three years - a host of quangos, a huge increase in Govt expenditure and regulation, in fighting and overwhelming arrogance. And ordinary Australians will be left to pick up the pieces.
Hugh, Brisbane, Qld
Erm..Is anybody slightly concerned that the Australian Labour Party now holds every form of government including local, State and now Federal Australia?
The highest ranking leader from the Liberal party is Brisbane's Lord Mayor, Campbell Newman, who doesn't even have a majority and has to work with his Labour majority councilors.
It pretty much leaves the Labour party to do what it likes with no effective opposition anywhere to bring any issues to the publicâs attention. We can't even rely on the media, who's standard of reporting has gotten a little circumspect over the years.
This is going to be an interesting couple of years!
Richie, Brisbane,
Congratulations Australia!!
You have just elected a government that will redistribute the wealth of hard working Australians and give it to those who refuse to work and would prefer to spend their days in the pub.
If your Labour Party is anything like the one we have had here in the UK for the last 10 years under Blair/Brown you are in trouble. But Don't worry your unemployment statistics will stay low because all the unemployed will be able to start claiming incapacity benefit (or similar) and they won't count them.
So to all you hard working Austrailians you will now be taxed to death by Stealth!! and your money put into a system that will ensure a dependency culture of people hooked on benefits.
Adam, Cambridge, UK
I have just watched on tv. the Labour Party of Australia sweep into power.
It was like it was happening in a time warp!
It was 1997 in UK and New Labour was about to take the reins of Government with Tony Blair at the helm.
Apparently , citizens of Oz know nothing of the end result 10 years' later of Blair and his cronies.
God help them as this new Oz leading light has only a faint glimmer of the charisma Blair appeared to have at the beginning.
It took a long time for the veil to drop and show his true personality and even less for Gordon Brown to stumble and stumble and stumble.
I give Rudd two years' at the most to drop the mask and hand the Government back to the Liberal party and it's coalition partner.
As a teaser, was that Alan Milburn being thanked by Rudd baby?
New Labour spin is imported to the 'wonderful land of Oz'!
Oh dear, oh dear!
prudence eely bond mcguire, London, UK
PM-elect Rudd is yet to face his real opponent: the unresolved Heiner affair
Lindy, Brisbane, Australia
Ike Eisenhower... it's hard to believe, firstly, that you are STILL bleating on about the boat people saga from so many years ago. Equally astonishing is that you use the shambles of lies which Howard spewed upon our nation during that debacle as a launching point for any kind of argument as to why he should have been re-elected.
Your bigoted, heartless and completely un-worldly vision of how the world operates is little more than a sad indictment to yourself, and a shameful reminder that Australia still has a few more generations of redneck mentality to endure.
When will closed-minded, flag-waving, navel-gazing neo-nazi fascist morons with xenophobic mindsets, such as yourself obviously, just do the right thing and stop breeding?
Here's to a new Australia, hopefully with a slightly more open mind, and much more open hearts. Not just for our own country, but for the world. Especially the portions of it that are far FAR less lucky than ourselves.
Marty, Perth, WA
australians and canadians have many things in common, including a similar constitution and political set-up.
but what australians don't like is long-range, apparently objective views in the form of gratuitous advice from outside from other nationals.
Dr John Taylor's views are, clearly, those of someone with not commitment to australia other than that of investor.
for a an australian take on John Howard's lame duck, see this article (sydney morning herald):http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2007/11/21/1195321864420.html
edward jones, yeovil, england
Kevin Rudd is a man with a plan, or an agenda.
He is telling us ,what he thinks will get him into office.
Politicians know that the public are gullible, by the
time the truth is known it's all to late.
Deceit is the common currency amongst these people.
J Mckay, Wellington,
Mr Howard's long rule over Australia reminds me of the maxim
that too lengthy political power comes to corruption without fail.
Having a vast land and coastline with relatively small population, we understand Australia's hard position in terms
of security of the nation; nonetheless, feel that the attitude of
Mr Howard toward USA , especially to Presedent Bush,
appears servile enough to have voters oust him from the cabinet.
M. Murakami, Tokyo Japan
M. Murakami, Tokyo, Japan
Mark from Newcastle? You couldn't have said it better. I spent the majority of Howard's rule overseas, and if I'd known how Australia had become, I would have stayed away. Howard is to Australia is what Thatcher was to the UK - he has completely destroyed the social fabric of this country and replaced it with the legacy you so accurately illustrated.
David, Perth, WA
One key economic indicator of Australia's current standing on the world stage is the quality with which markets view Gov't issued debt. All of the ACGB paper in circulation is AAA rated, effectively saying Oz credit quality is of the highest order. Likewise, Oz equities (even ex of commodities & bank sector stocks) consistently outperform those from mature other 1st world markets. In economic forums world wide, Oz is cited as a benchmark for sound Gov't measures positively encouraging market growth. Former US Fed president Alan Geenspan even used Oz as a model for policy reform. The importances of these key principals to the overall health of the âcommon marketâ are not to be understated. As a Canadian, and as an "independent" observer, who makes a living out of economic policy debate in the Asia-pacific region, I would strongly urge Australians to question the economic credentials of the leading opposition party before casting their vote. NB -You're currently envied the world over!
Dr John Taylor, Toronto, Canada
Ike Brisbane,
Maybe it would have been a good idea to help the many thousands of born and bred Australians who appear to "just sponge off our social security system".
The Work Skills vouchers are a great idea,but it would have made sense to let people know about them.
Bye bye Johnny.
Steve, Adelaide, Australia
Mark Newcastle,
Rudd has announced that there will no change to Australia's refugee and immigration policy, and he's not going to bother with Aboriginal reconcilliation, good. Now that he's completely copied Coalition policies, is it too much to hope that you will emigrate even if Rudd wins?
Nick, Melbourne, Australia
A most one-sided article.
And it fails to even mention the late swing to the Govt.
Neither strangely has it anything to say on the alternative - untried and having policies remarkably like the party they wish to unseat.
Why is it that people always forget that polls are usually unreliable with their predictions?
They always forget the great silent majority. At their peril.
richard morrish, bangkok,
I would want to see Rudd serve a full term as Opposition Leader to assess his capabilities. At present, he is an intangible, shadowy figure with little substance.
Bee Kay, Melbourne, Australia
'Tony Blair entered office a few months before Mr Howard was elected'. No, he didn't. Howard was elected in 1996. Blair entered office in 1997.
Richard Briand, Leek, England
John Howard,The greatest,most efficient master of fear politics and bigotry, that Australia has ever produced. It is about time that the ordinary Australian gave him his come upence.
Vin , Sydney, NSW
It's definitely time for a change! Howard has always reminded me ot Margaret Thatcher. No one ever admitted to voting for her but she alwayts got over the line. It is likely to be one to many for him this time...
Marc, Melbourne,
I fail to see the benefit for the country in voting for Kevin Rudd, who has offered nothing that the Coalition is not offering, who has failed to formulate a vision for Australia and who is, oh heavens, called Kevin.
Penny, Perth, Western Australia
Well there it is in a nutshell - the comment by Ike is a perfect example of what Mark is talking about, though it sounds like Ike would be wilfully ill-informed and ignorant with or without John Howard.
Fingers crossed, to the left, for tomorrow - a Labor victory would be sweet, Howard losing his seat would be a delicous comeuppance for a man I believe cares very much about what the history books will say about him, especially when in the final chapter.
Ian of Lithgow
ian rohr, lithgow, nsw
Turning away those 'asylum' seekers was one of the best things Howard did for Australia. We don't want the world's economic riff-raff here. We want people who can make a real contribution, and not just sponge off our social security system. And above all it should be Australians who decide who comes to Australia. Not the people smugglers in third world countries, who tell them to make up stories about phoney persecution so they can ride the gravy train. And there are lots of people in Australia who think the same. Thank you John Howard. You've got my vote.
Ike Eisenhower, Brisbane, Australia
I think it is very unlikely that Howard will lose his seat, regardless of the national outcome.
The references in the article to Menzies and the Australian cricket team are telling. John Howard is an unashamed worshipper at twin altars to Robert Menzies and Don Bradman and the self-image he projects is that of an amalgam of the two, though at his core he possesses the talents of neither. He remains the most cunning and amoral politician in Australian history.
Win or lose, Howard's legacy will be unchanged. He has remade the country in his image: small-minded, selfish, arrogant beyond its talents and abilities, inward-looking, fixed on comparing itself with an idealised vision of the past and unmindful of the challenges of the future. This election is a litmus test of the Australian character. Should Howard win, it will indicate that the Australian people are as venal and small as he is. It will be time for me to emigrate.
Mark , Newcastle , Australia
Excellent summary. Although the total lack of credible opposition has also been a major factor in his success until now.
Bill, Sydney, Australia
This government has managed the economy well, or rather, hoarded the cash, whilst riding on the coat tails of the global good times. At the same time, infrastructure, education and healthcare are a shambles. I have never experienced such a morally bankrupt government in this country. ll'l be voting for change.
Sam, Melbourne, Australia