AFTER the death of the first non-Italian pope in 455 years, Vatican insiders were asking yesterday whether the moment has finally come for a Third World Pope — or even the first black Pope since the fifth century.

The fact that there is no clear favourite could encourage the 117 voting cardinals to choose an Italian, and there are several credible candidates.

But an Italian Pope would be seen as a signal that the Roman Catholic Church’s hierarchy is playing safe by reverting to a centuries-old tradition. It would also make no concession to the fact that the Church has grown hugely in Africa and Latin America since the previous election, in 1978.

When the 117 cardinals younger than 80 who are eligible to vote meet behind closed doors in the Sistine Chapel, they are likely to need more than the two days and eight votes required before a puff of white smoke signalled the election of Pope John Paul II.

The new pontiff will be chosen through a combination of prayer and contemplation and base horse-trading. The three factors uppermost in the cardinals’ minds will be the candidate’s age, geography and ideology. Of the three, ideology is the least contentious: all but three of the 117 cardinal electors were appointed by John Paul II and largely share his conservative views. There are a few liberals, but most cardinals were chosen by the Pope precisely to ensure that his successor would be in the same mould.

The age of a new Pope is trickier. If the cardinals want a “transitional” Pope, with no chance of lasting as long as John Paul II, they will opt for a candidate in his late seventies.

On the other hand, they will be aware that many Catholics do not want another “geriatric” Pope, with images of papal decline again dominating the world’s media. There are several contenders in their sixties.

By far the most difficult criterion is geography. Does the Church — and the world — need a “safe” Pope from Italy, or the less predictable but more exciting prospect of one from Latin America or Africa? The election of a Polish Pope broke the mould. In the 27 years since, the centre of gravity in the Catholic Church has shifted to the Third World, and particularly to Latin America, where nearly half of the world’s billion Catholics live. Attention has shifted from the East-West conflict of the Cold War to the North-South divide and the poverty on which Islamic militancy and terrorism breed.

Italians no longer dominate the College of Cardinals, where the largest regional block — apart from Europe — is from Latin America.

The most likely candidates from the developing world are Cardinal Francis Arinze, of Nigeria, and Cardinal Claudio Hummes, of Brazil.

Cardinal Arinze, 72, who converted to Roman Catholicism as a boy, shares the late Pope’s conservative views on contraception, abortion and divorce. A drawback is that he has spent most of his career in the Vatican bureaucracy, not in Africa.

But he has hands-on experience of the relationship between Muslims and Christians, having served for nearly 20 years as the Vatican’s main expert on Islam and head of the Pontifical Council for the Doctrine of the Faith. Three years ago, in a move that seemed designed to improve Cardinal Arinze’s chances of becoming the first black pontiff, John Paul II moved him to the Congregation for the Divine Sacraments to give him experience of the liturgy and Church internal affairs.

If a black Pope is seen as a step too far — the last was Gelasius I, who died in 496 — the cardinals could opt for Cardinal Hummes, 70, Archbishop of São Paulo, who championed the fight against poverty and the social side-effects of globalisation as well as confronting the challenge to Catholicism of evangelical churches in South America.

Another serious contender is Cardinal Oscar Andrés Rodríguez Maradiaga, of Honduras, 62, the Archbishop of Tegucigalpa.

If the “Italian option” wins the day, the bookmakers’ favourite is Cardinal Dionigi Tettamanzi, 71, Archbishop of Milan, a moral theologian who runs Italy’s biggest diocese. He is not widely travelled and lacks language skills and charisma. More likely is Cardinal Angelo Scola of Venice, 63, who has knowledge of Islam and the Arab world, or Giovanni Battista Re, 71, the sharp-minded head of the Congregation of Bishops.

Some have suggested that Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger of Germany, 77, head of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith, could be chosen to provide continuity. Cardinal Ratzinger was a close aide to the late Pope and his guardian of ideological orthodoxy.

However, it is unlikely that a German would come after a Pole and Cardinal Ratzinger’s main role at the conclave will be to chair it as Dean of the College of Cardinals, giving him key influence as a “kingmaker”.

All predictions could be turned on their heads if the cardinals choose an outsider — as happened on October 16, 1978, when the name of Karol Wojtyla of Cracow was announced to the crowd in St Peter’s Square. Many thought that the name was African and someone shouted out: “My God, we have a black Pope.” This time, that could turn out to be true.

THE MEN WHO WILL PROVIDE A SUCCESSOR TO JOHN PAUL

CARDINAL ELECTORS BY REGION:

Italy: 20; rest of Europe: 38; America: 14; Latin America: 21; Africa: 11; Asia: 11; Oceania: 2

THE CONTENDERS

Keith O’Brien, 66, Archbishop of St Andrews and Edinburgh 20-1

Odds by Paddy Power

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