On the eve of two crucial primary election contests, Hillary Clinton is
pinning her hopes of winning the Democratic presidential nomination on a
collapse in the white vote for Barack Obama.
“White flight” from Obama, who was hailed as the first post-racial
presidential candidate, has been gathering force since Clinton’s nine-point
victory in last month’s Pennsylvania primary.
Her allies will be looking at voting patterns in Indiana and North Carolina on
Tuesday, the two largest remaining states to go to the polls, for any signs
that Obama’s proven weakness among white working-class voters may turn into
a rout.
Clinton is campaigning with fresh confidence that she has a plausible path to
the nomination, despite trailing Obama in states won and delegates pledged
to support her at the Democratic national convention this summer. She has
already beaten him among white, non-college-educated voters in 26 out of 29
states, according to exit polls.
If Obama’s support among the white working class reaches new lows, Clinton
believes she can persuade a majority of superdelegates – the party officials
with a casting vote at the convention – to back her. The risk is that this
would mean trampling on the wishes of African-American voters, a vital part
of any winning coalition for Democrats in a presidential election.
Clinton trails Obama by 135 delegates, with a total of 2,024 needed to clinch
the nomination. So far the traffic has been against her. Superdelegates have
been breaking in Obama’s direction by nine to one since Super Tuesday in
February, when nearly half the states in America voted.
Obama needs to perform only adequately on Tuesday, perhaps losing Indiana by a
small margin and winning North Carolina convincingly, for his path to the
nomination to appear assured. Obama's wafer-thin victory in Guam shows how
evenly split the race remains.
Jerome Segovia, a superdelegate who has yet to endorse a candidate, told The
Sunday Times that if Clinton could narrow the delegate gap to below 100 in
the remaining eight contests, superdelegates would feel free to vote with
their conscience and back her.
Segovia, a member of the Democratic party’s powerful rules committee, which
could play a key role at the convention in the event of a near-tie, is
leaning towards Clinton after initially favouring the Illinois senator.
“Obama has got to be 100 delegates ahead of Clinton by the end of the race. If
he is, it would be perceived as undemocratic to back her. Anything under 100
delegates is effectively a tie and it would be seen as reasonable to support
Hillary,” he said.
It would require a dramatic fall-off in support for Obama in the remaining
primaries for Clinton to reach that figure, but it is not impossible.
Last week’s rantings by his former pastor the Reverend Jeremiah Wright, about
American-sponsored terrorism and the US government’s supposed role in
spreading Aids as a form of black genocide, have helped to drive white
working-class voters away from Obama.
Rachel Smith, 24, a young mother and Clinton supporter, said at a diner in
Brownsburg, Indiana: “White people are giving up on Obama. Most of my family
members are leaning towards Hillary. It’s because of Reverend Wright. You
just can’t ignore him. He’s putting the last nail in Obama’s coffin.”
After a barrage of negative publicity for Obama, the polls are recording a
sharp swing towards Clinton. In Indiana, where Obama was once tied or
briefly ahead, two recent polls show a seven to 10-point lead for her. In
North Carolina, a new poll shows the extent of white flight, particularly
among undecided voters. Clinton’s advantage over Obama among white voters
has risen from nine to 23 points in a month.
During the same period, Obama’s 23-point lead in North Carolina has dwindled
to nine points. Although he is still favoured to win the state, it may not
deliver the resounding victory in the popular vote and delegate count that
he is seeking to offset potentially heavy losses in the next round of
primaries in the predominantly white, rural states of West Virginia on May
13 and Kentucky on May 20.
“This primary election on Tuesday is a game-changer,” Clinton said in Kinston,
North Carolina. “This is going to make a huge difference in what happens
going forward. The entire country – probably even a lot of the world – is
looking to see what North Carolina decides.”
A Clinton adviser claimed that up to 75% of the roughly 300 undeclared
superdelegates represented white working-class districts and may be
susceptible to the argument that the New York senator is the more
“electable” candidate to face John McCain, the Republican nominee, in
November.
Bill Clinton, the former president, has been swinging through the hamlets of
Indiana and North Carolina, speaking in village halls and from flatbed
trucks, in a bid to win over every last small-town voter for Hillary.
In Indiana he held a rally attended by 900 people in Martinsville, a former
hotbed of the Ku Klux Klan, where African-Americans seldom venture. In 1968
a black door-to-door saleswoman was killed with a screwdriver. The case was
only solved in 2002, when a woman stepped forward and said she was seven
when she saw her father commit the murder.
The former president has been playing up the “Bubba” factor on the stump – his
ability to connect with small-town voters. After being accused of deploying
the “race card” against Obama in South Carolina, he has been criticising his
wife’s opponent for being elitist.
“The great divide in this country is not by race or even income,” the former
president said at a campaign stop. “It’s by those who think they are better
than everyone else and think they should play by a different set of rules.”
Hillary Clinton has been stressing her homespun values and religious beliefs,
in contrast to Wright’s off-the-wall doctrines. At a meeting in Brownsburg
on National Prayer Day, she told the audience she had just come from a
prayer meeting with local ministers. “I am sustained and strengthened every
day by my faith,” she said. A Clinton official vehemently denied that
high-lighting her “electability” was code for drawing attention to Obama’s
declining support among whites. “No, no, no – not even close,” the official
said. “It is about who is best able to take on John McCain and the
Republicans.”
However, Obama urgently needs to prevent white flight from escalating out of
control. At a rally attended by 10,000 people in Bloomington, Indiana, he
sought to allay voters’ concerns.
“Because we’ve been so successful, my opponents have been trying to make this
election about me,” he said. “ ‘We’re not sure he shares our values. We
haven’t seen him wear a flag pin lately. He’s got a funny name. He says he’s
Christian but we don’t know. His former pastor said some terrible things,
and so, can we really trust this guy?’ ” Obama has cut down on
sports-stadium-size rallies and increased the number of small local
gatherings in an attempt to show voters that he is one of them, but Clinton
is packing in almost double the number of events and appears to be more
energised.
At an open-air meeting on education with Obama and his wife, Michelle, in a
park in Indianapolis, Ann Bilodeau, 47, a speech therapist, said the Obamas
came across as “very down-home, very Midwest people”. The controversy over
Wright had put Obama in a “difficult situation”, she said, “but I think he
will rise above it, I really do”.
However, Bilodeau recalled working in the 1980s for the election of Dan
Quayle, a young Indiana senator who went on to become vice-president under
the first President George Bush, and who tried hard to be a model
politician. “He didn’t like wearing his wedding ring, although he was
devoted to his wife. He got infections from it, but he had to wear it,” she
said. Today all he is remembered for is misspelling “potatoe” before a group
of schoolchildren. It finished his career.
American elections can be particularly brutal. George Allen, an early
favourite to win the Republican presidential nomination two years ago, lost
his seat in the Senate in 2006 after being caught on tape calling a young
Indian man “macaca”, an apparent racial slur. Rudy Giuliani, the former
mayor of New York, spent a year topping the polls but crashed and burned
when he failed to win a single Republican presidential primary this year.
On the other hand, Bill Clinton, the “comeback kid”, bounced back from crises
over dodging the Vietnam draft and news of his affair with Gennifer Flowers,
a nightclub singer, during his first election campaign in 1992.
Larry Sabato, professor of politics at the University of Virginia, said:
“Popularity is ephemeral. Obama has taken a tremendous hit. He is still in
pretty good shape for the nomination, but it is building up into a great
problem for the Democrats in the general election.”
Sabato said Obama’s steady personality should help him weather the crisis.
“He’s emotionally stable. As he himself said, his highs are not too high and
his lows are not too low. Generally speaking, stable politicians don’t
implode.”
Clinton will keep trying to derail him until the last primaries are held on
June 3, just in case.
Her campaign team is heavily courting superdelegates behind the scenes and may
have more waverers in her camp than current reports suggest, despite some
high-profile endorsements of Obama last week.
Segovia said he had heard little from the Obama campaign, but had recently had
an hour-long meeting with Clinton and a handful of other undeclared
superdelegates. “She was impressive,” he said.
Segovia is monitoring the popular vote tallies closely and could have a
crucial say on the rules committee in determining whether the votes of
Florida and Michigan primaries are counted – a decision that could give
Clinton an edge.
The states were disqualified from sending delegates to the convention because
they defied party rules by holding their contests early. Clinton won both
states convincingly, although Obama’s name was not even on the ballot in
Michigan.
If Clinton can narrow the delegate gap and lead the popular vote, Segovia is
prepared to risk the wrath of African-American voters and support her as the
nominee. Either candidate would make history. “You could say she is the
first woman candidate to get as far as she has, so it doesn’t bother me.”
Video: Today show
exclusive interview with the Obamas about recent events
Video: Complete
video of Reverend Jeremiah Wright's speech to the NAACP
Video: Former DNC
Chairman Joe Andrew endorses Obama
Video: Obama's
Indiana TV ad
Video: Obama at
Indiana University
Video: Clinton's
Indiana TV ad
Race isn't going to be a factor. We know from every poll done in the last 15 months that a majority of this country is ready to put him in office, and if people leave, it won't be because of race. Race fear is used in the campaign now, but in the end it won't matter, because ideas more important.
Jared, Phoenix, AZ, USA
Bush Sr. Bill Clinton Bush Jr. now Hillary.Do we really want another 4 to 8 years of this dynasty?Do we really want Bill Clinton wandering around the white house for 4 years with nothing to do?It's time for a change.
Jerry, Dumfries,Va., USA
Un- like Barak Obama Hillary Clinton loves this country she has worked her whole life for people less fortunate. She will fight for every single American. Barak Obama does not have the experience needed to run this country, and rather than bringing people together he has divided Americans once more
mimi, New York, USA
Hillary Clinton is a good woman. She has been unfairly demonized by her *opponents* for more than 20 years.
She has also lived the American dream. She started to organize to help children of migrant families when she was a teenager. She is commited to helping people. She is strong.
Cassandra , Portland, USA
TWO FACES OF HILLARY
When Bill Clinton, a husband, father, President, outspoken figure and spiritual confidante to Hillary betrayed her trust she didn't "disown" him.
Yet Hillary responded to Rev. Wright's remarks saying that she would leave his church, but she didn't leave her husband over conduct much worse, being publicly humiliated, offended and outraged.!
vucolova, RIDGEWOOD, USA
Something that gets lost in all this is that Obama is extremely liberal and that may be the main reason people won't elect him president. I thought it was interesting that Obama himself ticked off some of the other reasons.
gb, Austin, USA
I can promise you Hillary will not sit in the White House if the DNC steals this from Sen. Obama, nothing to do with race... Right is right Wrong is wrong! Can't go changing the rules at the end of the game cuase your team is lossing... Young, Educated middel class, and blacks will not support HRC.
Kevin, Chicago, USA
If Obama is being 'deserted' by white, working class voters, it shows a depressing willingness to be manipulated by the Clinton campaign and the Republicans (who want HRC as their opponent). Mugabe would be proud of the plans to reinstate MI and FL where Clinton's opponents weren't even represented
Keith M C O'Sullivan, Canterbury, UK
Superdelegates should not be concerned about the wrath of people, either African-American or Older-White type of subgroups.
Their GOAL is to choose the BEST for the country. And if they don't, and lose the Nov election, their COWARDICE will have the wrath of all the people of USA.
Jkan, Indianapolis,
Hillary Clinton has the experience,the look of a President, she comes over as being tough but fair. She cares about family and actually LISTENS to what people say. I only wish she was British! She would win an election here hands down. I hope for the whole world and not just America that she wins.
Laura Esther, Chester-le-Street, England
obama's greatest enemy is not hillary. it's racism, bigotry, and stupidity. hillary is simply playing to the crowd composed of white bigots, racists, and uneducated elements. her weapon is fearmongering. nothing lofty on her side. just plain burning ambition. obama will win the next polls.
jorge nunez, manila, the philippines
What will the pundits do when this primary is over? I am White, over 50, female....voted for Obama, still intend to vote for Obama. If I judged everyone I know by the people they hang around with, some would be bigots, others would be racists, a few would be psychotic....etc....etc. Obama 08
Rebecca Smith, Fresno, USA
I still want to give the benefit of the doubt to Hillary to win the Presidential election. Those currently voting for Obana in the Delegate Race are doing so deliberately just to promote McCain in November. The White-Black divide is too entrenched to be ignored.
Faustace Chirwa, Blantyre, Malawi
Obama's problem is not race. Indeed, he was ahead among all democrat voters not so long ago. His problem is, to quote an old saw, that you are known by the company that you keep. Given the data we now have Mr. Obama is anti American -- a Manchurian Candidate.
wjr, Phoenix, AZ, USA
Funny when the media was for Obama free pass coverage Hillary just fought harder to rise and she has.Go Hillary.Fair is fair.Obama got his own self in trouble with words and words do matter.Just listen to his pastor his mentor in Audacity to hope.He did it to himself.I would never vote for him.
Pat, Cuyahoga Falls, US
The idea of a 'working class white flight ' is quite bizzare. Please review the historical voting patterns of this group.
I think you will find that such people are called 'Regan Democrats' and are very unlikely to vote for Mrs Clinton.
Now even Clinton supporters are resorting to self-delusion!
Donovan Wright, Reading, Berkshire,
Obama doen not have a problem with anyone, people are looking to have problems with him, and blaiming him for something someone else said, which has been taken out of contex. God dammed America with Katrina, and ever since Tornadoes, floods, what they did to the Iraqi people will happen to them.
Daphne Kenward, Cambridge, UK
As a China watcher, I can't help believing that it would be good news for China either Clinton or Obama win the president election because the US senate will be so damaged by in-fighting because it is led by a woman or black that China will grow even stronger. The last time it happens was after 911.
Victor viv, Singapore,
After thirty years of the Democratic party 'unwashed' nominating unelectable nut-cases, the DNC decided that the job of nominating uneleclable nut-cases should be left to professionals, hence, the super-delegates...
James M. Flynn, Clearwater, Fla,
Why is everyone falling for this notion that Obama is losing the support of white voters? Go here, read, and find out the truth: http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/?p=1144 .
The so-called loss of white voters is a myth spun by political pundits...don't be taken in.
JH, St. John's, Canada
All the people that are critical about Hillary's propposed gas tax holidy seem to be haveing some kind of math problem. As I understand it it would amount to about 18 cents a gallon less. In Indiana where we are paying $3.70 a gallon 18 cents off a gallon is a price break that I would welcome.
John Hosler, Indianapolis, USA
why is it when people switch their vote they're racists? maybe they see Hillary as stronger for the job. I don't think it's clinton that is dividing the race & the dem's. Look at blacks that turned their backs on clinton and are voting for Obama who never even heard of him until recently. RACE CARD?
sherri, San Francisco, USA
Oh, yes, Obama supporters - blame it on race. The fact that over 90% of blacks in America is voting for the black candidate...uh, does THAT tell you something?
Obama voted to allow babies born alive after botched abortions to DIE - without medical help. HOW CRUEL and INHUMANE - I vote on ISSUES
Breny, Charelstown, USA
Senator Obama does not have enough experience to put between him and his questionable associates. Next he is going to have renounce and repudiate Ayers. The he will have to deal with his ties to Rezko and how the people in his district lived in deplorable conditions while Rezko benefited.
Linda, Macedonia, USA
White Flight huh???? Let the Superdelegates hand this race to Hillary and you will see "Youth Flight", "Black Flight", and "Campaign/Donations Flight"..!
Lis, Dallas, USA
This article and the democratic race is ridiculous because it's splitting people up so they don't focus on the issues. Obama still has plenty of white people who are voting for him. Republicans are voting for Hillary, which makes it appear that Barack is losing votes, she won't get them in the fall
Othello, columbus,
Only in America - to go from slavery to being 'elitist and too good for ordinary folk' in about 130 years. Who would have thought of that spin?
John Carty, Medellin, Colombia
I think that - whatever Obama's associates' conduct (or ex-associates rather - Hillary has shown herself to be a tough old boot with a very nasty streak After Bill's reign I wouldn't trust her as far as I could throw her
Also - does anyone really believe they will stay married if She doesn't win
LT, Warminster, UK
People don't seem to understand that this is not a race between Republicans and Democrats but between the War Party and its adversary Barack Obama.
Sinisa, Hamilton, Bermuda
While white voters are flocking to vote for hillary clinton Im not surprised . Theres still a huge level of racism here in america .Just like govenor Ed Rendel said in pennsulvania there are certain white people that are not ready to see a black person as president so im certantly not surprised .
LYNN FAMOUS, LAS VEGAS, CLARK
Despite Clinton attempts to divide races and the Democratic party, it boils down to integrity and competence. Clinton's lack of campaign preparation , poor money management and unethical tactics are a glimpse into her leadership style. Obama has shown an honorable campaign admired by the world
Catherine, NY NY, USA
If the democrats take this nomination from Obama ,even if he's on ahead one vote..and they will never get my vote again..never
and i'm a 60 year old white guy who has voted democrat for 40 years.
bj mac, mpls mn,
What did they call it when black voters abandoned Hillary to vote for Obama?
Dan, Sayreville, New Jersey, US of A
I guess it's ok for whites to vote in disproportionate numbers for HRC, but not so for blacks to do the same for Obama?
Here's another crazy idea by the pundits: Obama has a problem with blue-collar white voters.Why don't they say blue-collar voters have a problem with Obama?
joseph pierre, fort lauderdale, U.S.A.
Hillary Clinton knows that many, many older white Dems aren't 100% comfortable with Obama. We'd like to see Obama on the ticket but not in the top spot.
James, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA
Gas tax holiday will save a whopping $38 for the entire summer season. Lets give people that money, and risk having more bridges like the one in MN collapse, and let people die and get hurt.
Then we can send the lawyers after the government and extract $400,000,000 for the dead and injured alone (government get to fix the bridge outside of this). Now that is not just a plan, Hillary. That is a plan and a half.
How about some more Free Trade Agreements? Shall we get one signed with China and India? After all, we have one with Canada and Mexico, and Hillary's advisor worked behind the door to get one passed for Columbia. So, lets have more free trade agreements. Then we can all go beg to other countries for food.
David, Dallas, USA