Mr Bush is expected to ask Stephen Hadley, the deputy National Security Adviser, to replace Dr Rice, the officials said.

It was not certain, however, that Dr Rice, the 50-year-old unmarried daughter of a Presbyterian pastor, would accept the post. The former provost of Stanford University has previously expressed a wish to return to academia. Dr Rice would have less of a struggle than her predecessor for the President’s ear, and enjoy better relations with the Pentagon. She was at Mr Bush’s side through all the dramas of his first Administration and has developed by far the closest relationship with the President of all the possible replacements. She is a close friend of the Bush family.

Were Dr Rice to refuse the job, it is likely to go to John Danforth, the former Missouri senator, who is US Ambassador to the United Nations. He has presented himself as a multilateralist at the UN, where relations with the US were damaged by the Iraq war.

With Republican majorities in both houses of Congress, Mr Bush might also tap Richard Lugar, the Indiana Republican who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He would be popular in Europe but less so among the American Right.

Other candidates appear to have fallen from favour. Paul Wolfowitz, the Deputy Defence Secretary and Iraq war architect, would have difficulty winning confirmation from Congress. Paul Bremer, who led the interim administration in Iraq, criticised troop levels there just before the election.

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