LARGE swaths of the globe have become too dangerous for Westerners to visit or do business in, according to a report by a group of security experts.

The Middle East, much of the Islamic world and large parts of Asia and Africa are no longer safe, and attacks by Islamic militants against Western targets may increase, the RiskMap for 2005, published today by the Control Risks Group, says.

The United States is now considered safer than it was before the September 11 attacks. But the re-election of President Bush could lead to fresh confrontations with countries like Iran that will make the rest of the world more dangerous, said Jake Stratton, the company’s research director and author of the report.

He said that there could be more “vigilante-style terrorism” by small groups of Muslim extremists, who have been behind a wave of attacks ranging from the killings of expatriates in Saudi Arabia to the murder of a film-maker in Amsterdam.

While many countries on the Control Risks map are seen as “high-risk” areas, only Iraq, the Russian breakaway republic of Chechnya, and Somalia are designated “extreme risk”, to be avoided by all but the most intrepid and well-defended visitor.

“Iraq will remain a severely high-risk location for foreign personnel throughout 2005. The insurgency in the centre of the country is likely to persist with high intensity well into the year,” says the report. “This will primarily affect the security of Iraqi officials and civilians and multinational forces, but foreign civilian contractors will continue to be targeted with convoy ambushes, hostage-taking and suicide bomb attacks.”

While such places are off most people’s itinerary, more popular destinations make the second “high risk” category, including parts of Jamaica, Kenya, Nigeria, Zimbabwe, India, Pakistan, Nepal, Indonesia and the Philippines. The only “high risk” area in mainland Europe is Kosovo.

As for America, the report argues that action against al-Qaeda leaders, the tightening of anti-terrorist finance laws and the restructuring of intelligence and law enforcement agencies have made “the United States safer than at any point since 9/11”.

But Mr Stratton said that the re-election of Mr Bush meant that there was little prospect of a change in US foreign policy, which in turn could provoke new confrontations around the world. The report cites Iran’s continued nuclear weapons programme as a potential flashpoint. “Iran’s claims that its intent is merely to develop nuclear energy technology is unconvincing, not least because with its oil and gas reserves it has extensive access to conventional fuels,” the report says.

It rules out the possibility of a “large-scale military action against Iran”, but adds: “More credible is the prospect of limited US or Israeli strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities if it appears that Iran is close to developing nuclear capability.”

For those deterred from travelling by these dire predictions, there is no guarantee that staying closer to home will be safer. “In Western Europe, the risk of attack from (Islamic terrorist) networks will remain highest in Italy and the UK, while Spain continues to suffer from the presence of radical militants, who were revealed in October to have been actively recruiting and radicalising within the country’s prisons,” the report says.

The only countries to have an “insignificant” security risk are Iceland, Norway, Sweden and North Korea.

The organisation, which provides customers with everything from hostage negotiators to bodyguards and security analysis, accompanied its security assessment with a map showing the political risks in 2005. While acknowledging that terrorism will continue to dominate risk assessment, the report says that political uncertainties such as coups, civil unrest and regional issues can play as big a factor as terrorism in disrupting a country.

President Putin is expected to continue to strengthen his rule over Russia, and his supporters work towards a constitutional amendment to allow him to remain in power beyond his second term. Political turmoil is also predicted in oil-rich Venezuela, where, after his referendum victory, President Chavez “is likely to adopt a more confrontational approach, bringing greater state intervention in the economy”.

RiskMap 2005 (£150) can be ordered online at www.crg.com

STAYING SAFE

• Behave like a backpacker: staying in hostels and using public transport makes you less of a target
• Observe local customs: Learn some of the language, and don’t draw attention to yourself
• Take travel insurance
• Keep money in different places: do not resist if mugged. Offering cigarettes can ease tensions
• Carry photos of family to “humanise” you

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