RUSSIA has won, it seems. The man it wanted to be the next president of Ukraine appears to have triumphed in the elections. President Putin called him last night to offer his congratulations.

The candidate backed by much of the European Union appears to have lost. Last night Western observers said that the elections fell short of international democratic standards, although they stopped short of saying that outright ballot- rigging took place.

For the moment, then, Moscow’s influence over Ukraine remains. European hopes of drawing the former Soviet province closer must be put on hold.

But the fierceness with which the elections were fought, the high turnout and the “Europeanness” of many parts of this huge, complex country are good reason to think that the result, does not represent Ukrainians’ permanent choice for their future.

As things stand, the outside world has little choice but to take the winner to be Viktor Yanukovych, the Prime Minister, although it is entirely understandable that Viktor Yushchenko, the opposition leader, should contest the apparent result.

The joint observer mission of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe, the Council of Europe, the European Parliament and Nato said that they had seen abuse of state resources and media bias in favour of Yanukovych.

“This election did not meet a considerable number of international standards for democratic elections,” Bruce George, the leader of the team, said.

Some exit polls, conducted anonymously under a programme funded by Western governments, put Yushchenko ahead by 11 points. The opposition camp also accused the Prime Minister’s team of using absentee ballots to enable multiple voting.

But so far, independent observers have not detected blatant ballot rigging — although that does not mean that this did not happen — while there were certainly accusations of election-day misbehaviour from both sides.

Does the result matter? Yes, and not just because of the risk of civil unrest, a small but real possibility, as last night’s demonstrations showed.

The presidential elections have been billed, in Ukraine and outside, as a battle between East and West, between the Kremlin on one side, and the European Union, Nato and the US on the other.That is fair, although it includes some hyperbole. There is no question that Ukraine is a pivotal country: with 48 million people, it is pinned between an expanding EU and a diminished and defensive Russia.

For his part, Yanukovych made no bones about facing towards Moscow. He would make Russian the official second language if he won, he said, and allow dual Russian-Ukrainian nationality.

In turn, the importance of the elections for Russia has also been clear. Many Russians have felt humiliated by the loss of the former Soviet empire, particularly with the accession of Baltic and Central European states to the EU, and as the US has extended its influence over Central Asia.

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