THE most intense and divisive controversy facing the EU will reach its climax this week when European leaders are expected to defy public opinion and apocalyptic warnings from senior politicians and open membership talks with Turkey.

It is a move that Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, the former French President and author of the EU’s constitution, predicted would be the end of Europe. Frits Bolkestein, the former Dutch Liberal leader, gave warning that, if Turkey joins, Europe will implode.

Although membership is unlikely to be concluded before 2015, there is widespread fear that eventually Turkey’s almost entirely Islamic population could reach 100 million, making it by far the EU’s biggest member. Even by the time of accession it is likely to equal Germany’s 80 million.

Critics say that giving that population the right to live and work across the Continent will shift its cultural centre of gravity. In addition, absorbing its poverty-stricken agricultural sector will drain EU coffers.

Opinion polls suggest that a majority of people in almost all EU countries — including Britain, Germany and Italy — oppose Turkish entry, with opposition running as high as 70 per cent in Austria, France, the Netherlands and Denmark.

However, Turkey’s supporters — notably Britain and Germany — insist that its entry is essential to help to reconcile Islam and the West and act as a bulwark against Islamic fundamentalism in the Middle East.

They say that rebuffing Turkey will push it into the hands of extremists and that the best way to lock in democratic values is to embed it into the EU. No country is prepared to veto Turkey’s membership talks, but negotiations between member states have sought to curb anxieties by proposing conditions. France, Austria and Denmark are insisting that the talks should lead to a special “partnership” for Turkey, rather than full membership.

France, which has Europe’s largest Muslim population, has insisted that its citizens have the right to approve Turkey’s membership in a referendum — just as they approved British membership — with each country wielding a veto if they do not regard the outcome of the negotiations as satisfactory.

Many member states, including Denmark and Austria, have pushed for a permanent “handbrake” enabling countries to prevent Turkey’s current 70 million people having the full right to live and work in other states. Turkey’s population is currently growing by about a million a year and is expected to reach 100 million by 2050.

The most sceptical nation is Cyprus, which has succumbed to pressure not to use the veto, even though its northern part is occupied by 30,000 Turkish troops. Cyprus has said that it will settle for a promise that Turkey will officially recognise it as the negotiations progress.Draft conclusions circulated before Friday’s summit state: “The European Council welcome the decisive progress made by Turkey in its far- reaching reform process and reiterate its determination to enable Turkey to join the European community of values.”

Germany’s Christian Democrats, who seem likely to win the 2006 election, have promised to block Turkey’s entry. Their ally Edmund Stoiber, the leader of the Christian Social Union, said yesterday: “When we are in government in 2006 we will do everything, in conjunction with partners like France, to prevent full Turkish membership in the EU.”

Many governments are concerned that people will show their opposition to Turkey by voting against the European constitution in the ten national referendums that are being held over the next two years.

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