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As campaigning was launched last week, a coalition of leading Shi’ite parties called the United Iraqi Alliance began as firm favourites for the poll on January 30.
At least 60% of Iraqis are Shi’ites. With much of the Sunni population threatening to boycott the election, the coalition that was pulled together on the orders of the revered Shi’ite cleric Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani has looked unbeatable.
Last week there was evidence that even in the Shi’ite heartlands — including the second city of Basra — the coalition is far from unshakable. It is being undermined by fears of Iranian influence and tribal loyalties to local candidates.
The coalition is spearheaded by the formerly Tehran-based Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) whose leader, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, spent years in Iran.
It also includes the Iraqi branch of Hezbollah, which is close to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, and the Iraqi National Congress whose leader, Ahmed Chalabi, was accused by American officials of helping Iranian intelligence, a claim he vigorously denied.
Most Shi’ites are determined that the vote should go ahead regardless of Iraq’s insurgency. After centuries of domination by more educated Sunnis, they believe their time has come.
While they remain loyal to Sistani, it is unclear how far that allegiance will translate into support for Iranian-backed religious parties demanding much stricter Islamic laws.
As registration closed for candidates, it emerged that at least eight coalitions will oppose the United Iraqi Alliance, in addition to 73 other independent parties. Among the main challengers is the Iraqi List, led by Iyad Allawi, the interim prime minister. Despite his links to America, Allawi has secured strong backing for action taken against Sunni insurgents in the north, including last month’s attack on the rebel stronghold of Falluja.
“Everyone is going to vote in this election because it represents our freedom,” said Maki Abdullah, a Basra trader who echoed the sentiments of many.
“I will definitely support Allawi because he is a strong man who is dealing with the bad people.”
The suspicion of other voters about candidates such as Allawi, who returned from exile after the fall of Saddam Hussein and joined the American-appointed interim government, may also yield support for independent candidates.
In Basra, SCIRI and its militia, the Badr brigade, have a strong grip on local government. They also control much of the British-trained police and are thought to have murdered dozens of former members of Saddam’s Ba’ath party.
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