AS a man who admits to loathing Washington parties, President George W Bush may be in for a long evening when he marks the formal launch of his second term on Thursday with a $40m blitz of mink-draped diamond-studded celebrations featuring 10 separate inaugural balls.
The president is known to prefer baseball to dancing, but he and his wife Laura are expected to show off their Texas two-step at all 10 ballroom galas, from the Texas State Society’s Black Tie and Boots ball to the newly introduced Commander-in-Chief ball for 2,000 military servicemen.
Complaints that the celebrations are scandalously excessive at a time of war in Iraq and in the aftermath of the Indian Ocean tsunami have barely dented Republican glee, as the president’s supporters prepare to don alligator cowboy boots and beaver and cashmere Stetson hats in honour of his 2004 election triumph.
In a crowded inaugural schedule of private lunches and candle-lit dinners for which well-heeled Republicans have paid up to $250,000 a ticket, about the only event that Bush will not be attending is Fred Morhart’s Inaugural Bawl, a lunch for depressed Democrats who fear four more years of swaggering Texan rule.
Other Democrats have fled to Miami for a Caribbean cruise that will keep them out of Washington all week. Yet even before the Republican revellers tuck into their inaugural dinners of roasted Missouri quail and steamed lemon pudding, the battle lines are being drawn for a gruelling confrontation over a hugely ambitious second term agenda.
A first glimpse of the clashes ahead may come as Bush is being sworn in by Chief Justice William Rehnquist, head of the US Supreme Court. Rehnquist, 80, who is suffering from cancer, had not been seen in public for several months until he was spotted last week in a wheelchair inspecting the inaugural platform outside the Capitol.
He is said to be determined to swear in Bush, but that may be his last public act. Washington is buzzing about his possible replacement and the prospect of a bitter nomination battle if Bush chooses a conservative jurist in his place.
With at least two other Supreme Court justices reported to be considering retirement, the Democrats have vowed not to let Bush pack the court with right-wing ideologues. A nomination filibuster would cast a long shadow over Bush’s efforts to obtain bipartisan support for sweeping pension, tax and legal reforms.
The Democrats are not the only hurdle for the president. Many Republicans are nervous about Bush’s ominously expensive pledge partially to privatise America’s collapsing pension system. Economists have calculated that the imminent retirement of the baby boom generation will bankrupt the system by 2042.
Conservatives are also opposed to Bush’s plan to allow millions of illegal immigrants who have found jobs in America to obtain legal status.
At least 40 Republican congressmen are said to be worried that restructuring social security could provoke cuts in benefits and a voter rebellion at the 2006 mid-term elections. Federal spending will in any event come under intense pressure over the next two years as Bush attempts to halve the budget deficit by the end of his term, while still reducing income tax.
While most Republicans remain determined to take an axe to expensive welfare programmes, there are already signs that the Democrats will be able to exploit any cuts in housing, health and education spending. Newt Gingrich, the former Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives, warned last week that the Republicans could lose their majority if Bush made a mess of social security.
These divisions are unfolding against a backdrop of an expected $600 billion budget deficit, a widening trade gap and the haemorrhaging expense of the war in Iraq. Yet Bush was in buoyant mood last week. In a series of Oval Office interviews he shrugged off warnings that he is biting off more reforms than he can chew at a time of growing fiscal stress.
He also made it clear that he is determined to avoid the second term “lame duck” curse that ultimately soured the presidencies of Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton. “These are big goals,” he said. “But I’m the kind of person that believes in trying to solve big problems before they become acute.”
The White House argues that America is as ready for bold reforms on the domestic front as it was for the president’s fierce reaction to the September 11 attacks. Bush loyalists believe that voters already accept that the pension system is heading for crisis and that reforms will be well received.
Karl Rove, the president’s domestic policy guru, is reportedly convinced that a successful private pension programme could have the same effect on American voters as Franklin D Roosevelt’s New Deal. If Bush established the Republican party as the saviour of America’s pensioners, it might retain power for a decade or more.
While few dare to predict how this month’s elections in Iraq will unfold, it is also evident that Bush is not about to give up easily on what may be his most deeply rooted conviction: that democracy is the key to Middle East peace and eventual success in Iraq will spread political freedom elsewhere.
The transfer of Condoleezza Rice from national security adviser to secretary of state has brought new life to American diplomacy which had wilted as her predecessor, General Colin Powell, became marginalised by Donald Rumsfeld, his Pentagon nemesis.
It may now be Rumsfeld’s turn to be marginalised as Rice turns her attention to Iran, North Korea, China, Russia and other neglected policy problems.
Her closeness to Bush and her reputation for reason may also encourage warmer relations with some of America’s alienated allies. Bush has already signalled a more conciliatory approach with his forthcoming trip to Europe and early indications that he may become more engaged in the Middle East peace process.
In an interview last week Bush even regretted his aggressive choice of words when he urged terrorists to “bring it on” and vowed to get Osama Bin Laden “dead or alive”.
A kinder, gentler Dubya may be more than the world is yet ready to believe, but the reality of the second term is that Bush may be too busy wrestling with domestic crises to risk starting new conflagrations abroad. No amount of Republican preening this week can conceal the financial upheavals that may lie ahead.
