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Beijing will have to decide how to honour one of the fathers of the reform era without undermining its own legitimacy by softening criticism of him or hinting at his rehabilitation. Mr Zhao’s death was announced in a terse four-line statement and official media downplayed the news.
Beijing is not expecting a mass outpouring of support for the popular former leader, but nevertheless has instituted additional security measures.
The 1989 democracy protests were triggered by the death of Mr Zhao’s predecessor and the Government is keen to avoid even the appearance of a parallel. On Tiananmen Square yesterday afternoon, individuals and small groups gathered at the Martyrs’ Memorial to remember the man the West dubbed “China’s Gorbachev”. Some bowed and saluted the monument, but military police prevented them from reaching the steps leading up to the stone monolith. At least one man was detained.
A mile away, the house where Mr Zhao spent the past 15 years was under surveillance. Military vehicles blocked the red gates that form the main entrance to the single-storey courtyard building. Plainclothes police and women wearing the red armbands of the neighbourhood watch lined the narrow alley.
The 7pm television news on the main state channel, seen as a national notice board, failed to make any mention of the 85-year-old leader. Evening newspapers printed one or two paragraphs noting his death.
On the internet, however, tributes piled up. Chatrooms affiliated with the leading universities listed hundreds of messages of condolence and remembrance. Some were cautious: “A legendary man left quietly,” one said. “Zhao was good at doing, not just talking. We mourn him deeply,” said another. Others were guardedly political: “History will judge him fairly. Maybe it will be a little bit late. But people will remember him.”
Protest leaders from 1989 also weighed in. Wang Dan, who spent more than five years in jail and now lives in the United States, said in an open letter: “My heart is heavy and I feel profound sadness. Zhao Ziyang is a representative of the communists who have a conscience. His support for the student campaign in 1989 once greatly encouraged us. He repeatedly expressed his wish that China should go in a democratic direction.”
Observers are uncertain whether Mr Zhao will receive an official memorial service and, if so, whether party leaders will attend.
Another important yardstick will be whether the People’s Daily newspaper publishes an obituary and what other published commentaries on his life will say. “The Government needs to handle this in a way that doesn’t have a 1989 effect,” a Western diplomat said.
Mr Zhao fell from power shortly after May 19, 1989, when he met protesting students on Tiananmen Square. It was the last time that he was seen in public, having lost a power struggle over the use of force to evict the demonstrators.
One of the officials accompanying Mr Zhao on to the square was Wen Jiabao, now the Prime Minister. He survived the subsequent cull of ardent reformers and has avoided all mention of Mr Zhao in public since.
Although Mr Zhao’s career foundered on his commitment to political reforms, he was most closely associated with economic reform policies. As a little-known cadre almost three decades ago, he set in motion the process that led to China’s rise as a world power.
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