Jonathan Clayton, Africa Correspondent
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President Mugabe has not acted alone in bringing Zimbabwe to its knees.
He has a band of willing accomplices, many of whom fought alongside him in the guerrilla war against white rule and have benefited enormously from his time in power.
They rule through the secretive Joint Operational Command (JOC), which in effect took over after the first round of voting on March 29. Mr Mugabe was officially defeated in the vote for the first time since he took power in 1980, though the opposition narrowly failed to gain an outright victory.
The decision by the Movement for Democratic Change to pull out of the run-off poll on Friday leaves this junta stronger than ever. “Part one of the strategy - intimidate the opposition - has been achieved. Part two - keeping Mugabe in government at all costs - comes next,” said a senior African analyst.
JOC members, who dread the prospect of Mr Mugabe losing power, stiffened the veteran leader's resolve to resist the challenge of Morgan Tsvangirai, just as some of his top non-military advisers thought that the game was up and urged a negotiated settlement.
Human rights groups and diplomats say that the JOC has carefully orchestrated the violence, which has led to the deaths of an estimated 85 people, the torture of a further 1,300 and driven more than 35,000 opposition supporters from torched homes.
However, its inner workings are shrouded in mystery. Its most dominant figure is the immensely powerful Emmerson Mnangagwa, currently the Minister of Housing - he was responsible for razing opposition shanty towns two years ago - and a long-time member of the ruling Zanu (PF) politburo.
A lawyer by training, Mr Mnangagwa has been touted as a successor to Mr Mugabe for a long time. He built up the dreaded Central Intelligence Organisation, which he led during the Matabeleland massacres in the 1980s when the support base for Joshua Nkomo, Mr Mugabe's former rival, was destroyed.
He also co-ordinated Zimbabwe's involvement in the war in neighbouring Democratic Republic of the Congo in the mid-1990s, during which he became immensely wealthy from illegal mineral exports and arms dealing. He is named in several UN reports and could face charges before international tribunals on several counts.
Mr Mnangagwa has nothing to gain and everything to lose from a Mugabe exit.
He shares that qualification with other leading members of the JOC: General Constantine Chiwenga, the Army Commander; Augustine Chihuri, the police chief who commands the Green Bombers paramilitary militia; and retired Major-General Paradzayi Zimondi, head of the Prisons Service.
Before the first round of voting all three said in a joint statement that they would only serve Mr Mugabe, not any “puppet” - their leader's favourite term for the opposition. They ordered the men and women under their command to vote for the 84-year-old incumbent.
Another key JOC figure is Air Marshal Perence Shiri, chief of the Air Force. He used to control the notorious North Korean-trained Fifth Brigade, which carried out the Matebeleland massacres when the bellies of pregnant women were slit open to dispose of the “unborn traitor”, and villagers believed to support Nkomo were thrown alive down wells.
These men have worked closely with Brighton Bonyongwe, the intelligence chief who is feared for his ruthlessness, and Joseph Chinotimba, the leader of the War Veterans Association, to co-ordinate the crackdown on MDC supporters.
All are unfazed by suggestions that they could end up before the International Criminal Court.
Most have such shady pasts that they already fear there are sealed envelopes in The Hague awaiting delivery. For them, the only safe way out is to ensure that Mr Mugabe keeps power. They know that, unlike the man they serve, there is little chance of them being offered immunity or other “safe passage”.
President’s henchmen
Emmerson Mnangagwa, 62. Minister of Rural Housing. It has been an open secret for years that this ruthless former head of the intelligence service wants to succeed Mr Mugabe. Is noted for his brutality towards opponents
Constantine Chiwenga, 50s. Commander of the Zimbabwe Defence Force. He joined Mr Mugabe in Mozambique for the independence struggle. He is noted for his ruthlessness and loyalty to the President
Augustine Chihuri, 50s. Commissioner General of Zimbabwe Republic Police. Although he denies political links, Mr Chihuri was one of the first to say that he would never swear allegiance to the opposition if it took power. His son, Sylvester, was recently deported from Australia
Retired Major-General Paradzayi Zimondi, 60s. Head of the Prison Service. Issued orders to his officers to vote for President Mugabe in the elections. He was part of a group of military chiefs who said on the eve of the 2002 elections that they would not recognise the presidency of anyone who did not participate in the 1970s war of independence
Air Marshal Perence Shiri, 53. Chief of the Air Force since 1992. A cousin of the President, he once called himself a “Black Jesus”. From 1983 to 1984, the Zimbabwean Fifth Brigade under Shiri’s command was responsible for a reign of terror in Matabeland
Brighton Bonyongwe, 47. Formerly a brigadier general in the Defence Force before retiring to take on the role of head of the Central Intelligence Organisation. Enjoys life on his two previously white-owned farms
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