THEY have been accused of abuses ranging from corruption and nepotism to boiling their political opponents in pots. The leaders of the former Soviet republics of central Asia watched with trepidation last week when Askar Akayev was ousted as president of Kyrgyzstan, but look certain to respond in characteristic manner — by clamping down further on their own opponents.

Bishkek, the Kyrgyz capital, was tense yesterday after overnight clashes between looters and police in which up to six people died. Debris was strewn on Chui Prospekt, the main thoroughfare, and few shops and markets were open.

Akayev, who initially fled to neighbouring Kazakhstan, was reported to have arrived in Moscow, suggesting he may have given up hope of being reinstated. Presidential elections have been set for June 26.

Thousands of Akayev supporters gathered in the former president’s home region of Kemin and threatened to march on the capital. A press conference to be addressed by Kurmanbek Bakiyev, the interim president, was moved after claims of a plot against his life.

The transition to democracy is unlikely to be smooth. Diplomats said they feared Bakiyev might find it difficult to unite factions that came together to oust Akayev in a country riven by clan rivalries.

“The idea of a multi-party system is still alien,” said one. “This ‘people’s government’ is not fresh-faced. They are old political hands with extensive track records in the previous administration.”

The true significance of the “tulip revolution” — which follows similar upheavals in Georgia in 2003 and late last year in Ukraine — may lie in its effect on the region as a whole.

The five central Asian republics have assumed considerable strategic importance after the US-led invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. America now has military bases in both Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, while Russia maintains forces in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

Despite jubilation among the fledgling pro-democracy movements in Kyrgyzstan’s neighbours, their governments seem set to seize on the turmoil as an excuse for more repression.

“These events are going to be an inspiration for opposition groups in the other countries of central Asia,” said Gulnoza Saidazimova, an expert on the region at Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. “The paradox of this revolution is that it happened in the most liberal country in central Asia.”

Nursultan Nazarbayev, president of Kazakhstan, which is poised to become one of the world’s top 10 oil producers by 2015, set the tone the day after the coup. Although he said that Akayev’s ousting was largely a result of Kyrgyzstan’s economic problems, he added: “The weakness of the authorities also played its negative role in allowing rioters and thugs to act as they pleased.”

Nazarbayev, who has ruled Kazakhstan in an increasingly authoritarian manner since 1990, will be looking at ways of securing his own re-election next year. As an insurance policy he has been preparing the way for his daughter Dariga to succeed him.

Events may come to a head earlier in Uzbekistan whose leader, Islam Karimov, was accused in 2003 by Craig Murray, then the British ambassador, of presiding over torture — including the boiling to death of two political opponents.

Karimov, whose daughter Gulnora is a powerful businesswoman, reacted to the Georgian revolution by restricting the activities of foreign non-governmental organisations. A further clampdown is now asssured.

The Uzbek opposition is determined to seize its chance. “What happened in Kyrgyzstan has been a serious lesson for us,” said Surat Ikramov, a human rights activist. “But here the revolution, when it comes, has a serious chance of ending in bloodshed.”

The effects may be less strong elsewhere in the region. Saparmurat Niyazov, the eccentric megalomaniac leader of Turkmenistan, has ruthlessly suppressed all opposition since becoming Communist party leader of the then Soviet republic in 1985.

Declared president for life — or simply Turkmenbashi — he has initiated a personality cult in which cities, regions, aiports and even meteorites have been named after him, while bread and the month of April have been renamed after his mother.

The reaction is also expected to be muted in Tajikistan, where President Emomali Rakhmonov’s ruling party won a huge majority last month in elections which were widely denounced as rigged. The country suffered a five-year civil war in the 1990s in which 100,000 died and appears to have little appetite for further upheaval.

Additional reporting: Katya Lebedeva, Moscow

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