Pizzas galore!

Some analysts suspect Saudi Arabia is teetering on the brink and — like Iran in 1979 — could fall victim to a popular Islamic uprising at any time. Others argue that such speculation is unduly alarmist; that Al-Qaeda is a spent force, the oilfields are well-defended, and that Crown Prince Abdullah and senior members of his family remain unshakably in charge.

That was certainly Abdullah’s message after Saudi commandos stormed the Oasis compound last Sunday and freed 50 hostages held by a small group of gunmen. “Security forces will, God willing, deal with them and others like them by force,” the country’s de-facto ruler announced. Yesterday a religious edict was issued calling on all Saudis to “inform on anyone planning an act of sabotage”.

But that was not the message conveyed by the bizarre ending to the siege at al-Khobar, where hundreds of Saudi police and commandos surrounded the compound yet somehow allowed all but one of the terrorists to escape. Suspicion of collusion between terrorists and security forces continues to undermine western confidence in the regime.

Nor was defeat on the mind of Abdulaziz al-Muqrin, the Al-Qaeda field commander who is commonly believed to be Bin Laden’s chief strategist in Saudi Arabia. A statement attributed to al-Muqrin last week warned the royal family: “Our war with you will not end until God’s will is enforced and the crusaders (westerners) are expelled from the land of Muslims, leaving (you) as easy prey.”

PRESIDING over this toxic mess is a deeply flawed Saudi establishment that has failed to convince a sceptical world that it possesses either the skill or the muscle to keep Bin Laden’s men at bay.

The nominal ruler of the House of Saud is King Fahd, son of the country’s founder, Abdul Aziz ibn Saud. When Fahd suffered a near-fatal stroke in 1995, his senior relatives gathered outside his hospital room to figure out what to do next. “From all over Riyadh came the thump-thump of helicopters and the sirens of convoys converging on the hospital,” Baer wrote in his book, Sleeping with the Devil.

Among the first to arrive was Jawhara, Fahd’s fourth and favourite wife, and their spoiled son Abdul Aziz, who was called “Azouzi” (dearie) by the king. Azouzi was known in Riyadh for riding his Harley-Davidson motorcycle inside his father’s palace, smashing furniture and scattering servants.

Next to arrive, Baer reported, were Fahd’s full brothers — Prince Sultan, the defence minister; Prince Nawaf, the interior minister; and Prince Salman, governor of Riyadh province.

Bringing up the rear was Crown Prince Abdullah, Fahd’s reform-minded half-brother, the designated heir to the throne. Waiting anxiously elsewhere for news were up to 12,000 minor princes and their sprawling families, most of which depend on Fahd’s largesse.

Many stories have since emerged about the impenetrable power struggles of the royal clan. Some of the princes are said to be convinced that only America can protect them from the threat of Islamic revolt; others are believed to have concluded that cosying up to the country’s conservative Wahhabi clergy is the safest route.

No outsider can speak with confidence about which princes are in cahoots with what political group. Yet divisions in the family are known to have deepened as oil prices fell in the mid-1990s and Saudi wealth began to unravel in the face of a population explosion. Even the lowliest of Saudi princelings was being subsidised by Fahd at a rate of about $19,000 a month.

Many minor royals supplemented their income by taking bribes from construction firms, becoming involved in questionable arms deals, expropriating property from commoners or simply borrowing money from banks and refusing to pay it back.

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