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The Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert is racing to conclude a peace deal with Syria before he steps down from office in a few months.
Syria is close to agreeing to “normal relations” in the words of its president, Bashar al-Assad, and to disengage from Iran in return for an Israeli withdrawal from the occupied Golan Heights. The outline of a deal was reached in talks brokered by the Turks, according to reports in Israel.
“We [Syria and Israel] desire to recognise each other and end the state of war. Let us make peace . . . let us end, once and for all, the state of war,” Imad Mustafa, Syria’s ambassador to the United States, told a Washington audience last week.
Assad, who is due to visit Tehran this weekend, is expected to inform his Iranian partners that Damascus has opted to loosen its links with them and move closer to Israel. The meeting is likely to be a difficult one since Iran has been financing the rebuilding of Syria’s armed forces and a mutual defence pact has only recently been ratified.
Olmert is driving a hard bargain for what will be an unpopular deal in Israel. He wants the closure of the Damascus offices of Hamas and other militant organisations and a promise that Syria will not implement its defence pact with Iran if Israel or the United States should go ahead with an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Shaul Mofaz, Israel’s deputy prime minister, told a Washington audience last week that Iran is on the path to a “major breakthrough” in its nuclear programme, which he described as “unacceptable”. Mofaz, tipped as a future Israeli leader, said the country faced an existential threat.
“Israel’s main purpose is to create a barrier between Syria and Iran and if this is achieved, the return of the Golan Heights to Syria would be a worthwhile price,” said an Israeli defence source.
“Assad is not stupid,” political sources told the Israeli paper Ma’ariv. “He knows that being stuck between the Iranian leader [Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad and the Hezbollah leader [Hassan] Nasrallah can only harm Syria. He wants to be part of the West. He wants Syria to be no longer included in the ‘axis of evil’ and taken off the American list of countries that support terrorism. Israel should seize this opportunity with both hands.”
As part of his campaign to bring Syria in from the cold, London-educated Assad and his British-born wife Asma were received by President Nicolas Sarkozy in Paris last month. The peace negotiations paved the way to an end of years of diplomatic isolation.
Assad will take a message from the French president to the Iranian leadership, warning Tehran that it must agree to international incentives in return for a cessation of its uranium enrichment programme, which is widely believed to be part of a nuclear weapons programme.
But President Ahmadinejad seemed to rule out any progress last night when he was quoted on his official website as saying after talks with Assad that Iran would not retreat “one iota” from its nuclear rights.
For all Olmert’s efforts it will be almost impossible for him to achieve peace before leaving office. A decision on withdrawal from the Golan Heights, which Israel has occupied since its victory in the six-day war in 1967, would need the approval of the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, and possibly a referendum. “Anything can happen in the Middle East between now and when Olmert finally steps down,” said a security source.
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