A STRONG performance in last week’s presidential debate has propelled Senator John Kerry, the Democratic challenger, into a dramatic lead over President George W Bush in the first major opinion poll since the two candidates faced each other in Miami on Thursday night.

For the first time since the end of the Republican convention a month ago, a Newsweek poll showed that Kerry had surged past the president to lead by 49% to 46%. The same poll showed that 61% of Americans thought the Massachusetts senator had won the debate.

Only 19% thought Bush had won, a stunning setback for the Republican incumbent whose supporters had been expecting a comfortable victory on foreign policy issues that were regarded as the president’s strong point.

While Democrats had predicted a boost from Kerry’s widely praised performance in the debate, few had dared hope that Bush’s seemingly impregnable lead could have been wiped out so swiftly.

Campaigning near Disney World in central Florida yesterday, Kerry stepped up his attacks on the president, accusing Bush of being “plain stubborn, out of touch and unwilling to change course”.

As both men turned to domestic economic issues, a second debate, in Missouri on Friday, suddenly loomed as a crucial test for Bush, whose steady progress towards re-election has been at least temporarily derailed by his defensive and occasionally petulant performance in Miami.

With one month of campaigning to go and a final televised debate in Arizona on October 13, the Democratic party’s born-again contender, who was widely written off after weeks of attacks on his Vietnam war record, has suddenly electrified his supporters with a tantalising hint of an upset.

So great was the Democrats’ delight at Bush’s potentially ruinous stumble that when, 24 hours later, Kerry reached the hurricane-swept town of Kissimmee, he had only to mention the word “debate” to cause instant pandemonium.

“Did you happen to watch any of that debate?” he asked a crowd of mostly Hispanic supporters at a community hall. The pounding of benches, stamping of feet and screams of “Viva Kerry” went on for several minutes.

“I know we’re just a stone’s throw from Disneyland (sic),” Kerry added when the racket subsided. “But if I want to go to Fantasyland, I visit Bush’s White House.” The Kissimmee crowd exploded.

“I think we’re gonna have a real presidential race,” said William Kristol, one of numerous conservative Republicans who were quietly appalled by Bush’s unexpectedly tremulous performance at the Miami forum, where many of his supporters had expected him to deliver a knock-out blow.

Yesterday’s Newsweek poll showed that almost two-thirds of the 62m American viewers watching the televised debate found Kerry more confident and self-assured. Only 26% felt that way about Bush.

In perhaps the most remarkable finding, 46% said that Kerry seemed more likeable, compared with 41% for Bush. The president has long benefited from superior affability ratings, while Kerry has widely been portrayed by Republicans as aloof and remote from ordinary Americans. The president’s overall job approval rating also dropped two points to 46%. No incumbent has ever won re-election with less than 50%.

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