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After spending hundreds of millions of dollars against an incumbent not only responsible for an unpopular and bloody war, but also the first since Herbert Hoover to have presided over a net loss of jobs, Democrats woke yesterday to view a map of America that has turned even more deeply Republican, especially in the small-town heartland.
Democrats not only bet all on winning back the White House, to see instead President Bush win more of the popular vote than even Bill Clinton managed, but they ceded significant ground on every political and social level at the hands of an electorate which now clearly identifies more with Republican than Democrat values.
Democrats suffered a net loss of four seats in the US Senate, which now gives Republicans a hugely significant nine-seat majority, and in the House of Representatives Mr Bush can now count on a 21-seat advantage.
Republicans now control more governors’ mansions. Also, in one of the biggest surprises of the night — and one of the most ominous signs for Democrats — “moral” issues such as gay marriage and abortion emerged as one of the decisive factors in sending voters to the polls in support of Mr Bush.
On every front, yesterday’s results sounded alarm bells for a party that spent hundreds of millions of dollars on advertising, turned out more of its voters, and raised more money than at any time in its history.
In a graphic demonstration of how strong the Republicans’ lock has become on the South, only one generation ago the preserve of the Democrat Party, even John Edwards, Mr Kerry’s running-mate, saw his own state of North Carolina vote for Mr Bush by 56 per cent to 43, the same margin of victory for Mr Bush four years ago.
Mr Edwards’s own senate seat, which he vacated to focus on his initial bid for the Democrat presidential nomination last year, went Republican by nearly 200,000 votes. Democrats lost all five of the Southern senate seats they were defending, giving the Republicans a clean sweep in both Tuesday’s presidential and senate races in the South.
With Democrats fervently believing that Mr Bush’s mismanagement of Iraq would trump his advantage on terrorism, when Mr Kerry’s moderation on social issues would send swing voters his way, when job losses in Ohio had to give the senator the edge, Mr Kerry’s “victory” rally in central Boston on Tuesday night became an event marked with disbelief and gloom.
Even by early evening, before the results started to pour in and the truth emerged, fun was in short supply. Democrats were lashed by a freezing drizzle, there was no alcohol, and the acts on stage seemed strangely depressed. By the time James Taylor dedicated Carolina In My Mind to Senator John Edwards, both North and South Carolina had fallen.
Even the location of the optimistically titled “KerryEdwards 2004 Victory Party” was an odd choice: it was in front of the grand Copley Plaza Hotel where Fritz Kohn, the Democratic challenger’s Jewish grandfather, shot himself after losing his third fortune.
There were cheers early on, particularly with early exit polls pointing to a Kerry win. But by 11pm, when it became obvious that victory in Pennsylvania had been overshadowed by a loss in Florida, the cheering became more subdued.
By 2am, the crowd consisted only of diehard John Kerry fans. Then a group of young and possibly inebriated Bush supporters decided to crash the party, bellowing “Go Bush!” and “Four More Years”, resulting in an ugly confrontation.
At 2.30am, when all hope had been extinguished, Mr Edwards made a weary appearance on the waterlogged stage. “It’s been a long time, but we’ve waited four years for this victory, we can wait one more day,” he declared, to an almost silent plaza.
Meanwhile, at a victory party for Mr Bush in downtown Washington, 5,600 guests with tickets were dancing, drinking and screaming their belief and joy amid the dry warmth of the Ronald Reagan Building, three blocks from the White House.
By the time Florida appeared won at 11pm, the early-evening jitters had evaporated amid the din of live country and western music, bow-tied waiters serving wine, beer and cocktails, and an evident belief that not just Mr Bush, but Republicans in general, were winning an historic mandate that would give them the right to reshape the Supreme Court in their image, strengthen the role of religion in public life and snuff the life from the Democrat Party.
At 5.15am, Andrew Card, Mr Bush’s chief of staff, emerged to declare to the packed crowd: “We are convinced that President Bush has won re-election.” He added that Mr Bush had a “statistically insurmountable” lead in Ohio.
“I’m 20, so I didn’t touch a drop,” Matthew Warner, a Republican intern, said over a coffee at 6am. “And anyway, I’ve got to go to work.”
And, clear eyed, off he went to embrace four more years.
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