With the health of Yassir Arafat deteriorating in a Paris hospital, Richard Beeston, Diplomatic Editor, assesses future for the Palestinian leadership should their president die.

What happens if Mr Arafat dies?

The stakes are very high, but conflict is not inevitable. In theory if the Palestinian president dies there should be elections to choose a replacement. It is possible that this will happen, although the political situation is complicated. With the Israelis planning to withdraw from Gaza next year and Tony Blair and the new Bush Administration looking for a new peace drive in the region there are great oppotunities for a new leader, but the Palestinian leadership is divided and weak and choosing a replacement who can bring the people together will be very difficult.

What are the official arrangements?

Mr Arafat is president of the Palestinian Authority, the Palestinian governing body in the West Bank and Gaza. If he dies, Rawhi Fattooh, the speaker of parliament, would oversee a caretaker Palestinian Authority for 60 days, by which point presidential elections should be held. Ahmed Qureia, the Prime Minister, would be expected to run the day-to-day affairs of the authority.

Mr Arafat is also the chairman of the broader Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), which is responsible for peace talks with Israel and the head of the mainstream Palestinian nationalist movement Fatah. The former prime minister, Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen), has been running the PLO, where he is Mr Arafat's No 2. In the Palestinian leader's absence he would continue in that provisional capacity, pending an internal election. Mr Abbas has also taken provisional charge of Fatah's central committee. Elections to the key executive body were last held in 1989 and a fresh vote has been repeatedly put off.

Why hasn't Mr Arafat named a successor?

Mr Arafat has never been good about sharing power and regards himself as the personifaction of the Palestinian people until his last breath. He has survived in part because of his policy of divide and rule. He has also kept tight personal control over the PLO accounts. The amount and who would inherit it are still a mystery. So far nothing there has been no manouevering on the surface and this is unlikely to while he remains alive. Once he dies, however, there are at least two prominent political figures who are likely to jockey position and several military ones each with their own powerbases.

Who are these leading figures?

The main contenders are Ahmad Qureia (Abu Ala), the Prime Minister and Mr Abbas. But outside the formal political structure there are other figures who are popular and powerful like Marwan Barghouti, who is serving five life sentences for leading the intifada against Israel, Mohammed Dahlan, the former security chief in Gaza, who could become a hugely important figure if Israel presses ahead with its withdrawal from the area next year and Jibril Rajoub, his counterpart in the West Bank. All have their strengths, but none can fill Mr Arafat's shoes.

Has Mr Arafat been holding back civil war by force of personality?

Civil war is not inevitable and it is unlikely while Palestinians are united against Israel. The big test of cohesion in Palestinian society will be the proposed Israeli withdrawal. If there is a violent power struggle between the mainstream PLO and militant groups like Hamas. Some figures like Barghouti can have a unifying effect on society and certainly Mr Arafat's influence would be sorely missed if he is no longer on the scene.

Explore World News

• World Agenda

• Iraq News

• US & Americas News

• Europe News

• Middle East News

• Afghanistan News

• Asia News

• Africa News

• Ireland News

Times Recommends

• Mandela’s tribe threatens President Zuma
• The French empire strikes back
• Wife of cheating governor exacts a political revenge