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Condoleezza Rice, as avid a sports fan as the President as well as his National Security Adviser and constant sidekick, is expected to leave the White House. She will not necessarily depart the Administration, however. Ms Rice, whose dream job would be (American) Football Commissioner, let it be known 18 months ago that she was looking forward to returning to academia in California after a gruelling first term. But she might be persuaded to stay in Washington. One job she is said to fancy is Secretary of Defence at the Pentagon, if Mr Bush decides to relieve Donald Rumsfeld. Mr Rumsfeld is keen to extend his tenure and wants time to finish the “rationalisation” of the Armed Forces, the project he began four years and two wars ago to drag the US military into the 21st century.
The biggest decision facing Mr Bush is what to do with General Colin Powell at the State Department, the member of his national security team who is most often out of step with colleagues.
General Powell’s friends repeatedly raised the prospect of his departure during the first term, seemingly to frighten the White House into taking his counsel more seriously. Losing General Powell in the run-up to the Iraq war, for instance, would have sparked a real crisis for the Administration.
The Secretary of State’s public response to speculation about his future has been deliberately opaque. He says he “serves at the pleasure of the President”. But it may suit Mr Bush for General Powell to stay put in the short term.
One of the favourite candidates to replace him is John Danforth, an ordained minister and the current US Ambassador to the United Nations, where he is spearheading peace efforts for Sudan.
It may make sense for Mr Bush to give Mr Danforth some time to see if he can broker such a deal, in which case his accession to the State Department would be widely cheered. Mr Danforth has also spoken passionately about HIV and Aids in Africa, an issue regarded by Mr Bush as a priority.
Mr Bush, spending the weekend at Camp David to ponder his choices, is also set to reshape the domestic side of his Cabinet. It has been a remarkably stable team, even though it performs a different role than its British counterpart — the Bush Cabinet has met only 27 times in the past four years, little more than once every two months. But several of the posts are high-profile jobs which can be critical to the Administration.
One possible replacement for John Ashcroft, the Attorney-General who is expected to step down, is Larry Thompson, one of his former deputies who would become the first African American to hold the office. Another is Rudolph Giuliani, the former New York mayor. However, Mr Giuliani is expected to make a presidential run in 2008, something he could not do from inside the Cabinet.
Tom Ridge, Director of Homeland Security, is also expected to leave, another possible presidential runner. Marc Racicot, the chairman of Mr Bush’s re-election team, is a possible replacement. Tommy Thompson, Health and Human Services Secretary, signalled before the election that he would like to step down but has appeared reinvigorated by the campaign and is a candidate for Homeland Security.
John Snow, Treasury Secretary, may go. He does not carry the clout on Capitol Hill that the White House will need to push through its ambitious programme of pension and tax reform.
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