AFTER two years of unswerving solidarity over the war in Iraq, Tony Blair’s relationship with President George W Bush is coming under strain from the newly revived threat of an American military attack on nuclear facilities in Iran.

British officials are increasingly concerned that months of patient European-led diplomacy aimed at curbing the ayatollahs’ nuclear ambitions may suddenly explode in a torrent of bunker-busting bombs dropped by B-2 stealth bombers.

Reports last week that US special forces are already scouting for targets in Iran have fanned concern that London and Washington are heading for an embarrassing split over American mistrust of Tehran.

Despite Blair’s commitment to the so-called EU-3 Iran initiative launched by Britain, France and Germany, a consensus is emerging in Washington that an approach dubbed by some officials as “European carrot and American stick” — and by others as “good cop, bad cop” — is failing to produce results.

European negotiators were recently described by David Kay, the former US weapons inspector, as “impotently manipulable”. A prominent Washington defence hawk warned: “At some point the Americans are going to turn to the Europeans and say, ‘The goal is disarmament but all we are getting is arms control. It’s time for a bigger stick’.”

Although Downing Street publicly insists that Bush and Blair remain “closely in touch” on the Iranian threat, some British officials are privately concerned that Dick Cheney, the hardline American vice-president, is driving the administration’s policy on Iran.

“You look around at potential trouble spots. Iran is right at the top of the list,” Cheney said last week.

There is also concern in London that the Pentagon may be ordered to act on the basis of flawed intelligence. Despite the debacle over Iraq’s supposed weapons of mass destruction, the Pentagon appears to be relying heavily on satellite photographs of Iranian installations that British sources describe as alarmingly inconclusive.

“They tell us, ‘Look, bulldozers have been down this road three times. Something’s going on’,” said one well informed source. “They are very dismissive when European humint (human intelligence) suggests something different.”

One well known US weapons specialist last week described the Iranian nuclear issue as “the Cuban missile crisis in slow motion”. But whereas President John F Kennedy successsfully forced Moscow to withdraw its missiles from Cuba in 1962, much of Washington already appears convinced that the ayatollahs will not back down.

“I think the administration takes the view that this (European) negotiation is bound to fail,” said Robert Einhorn, a former State Department adviser on non-proliferation.

“I quite frankly am pessimistic,” added Kay, who led the futile American search for Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. “I think the regime is in fact hell-bent on this capability.

“I think it would be a huge mistake to take the military option off the table, even if the Europeans will never agree to it.”

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