LAST week all attention was on Africa. This week it will be on China. No deal, however, and no progress, in either case.

That seems the likely outcome when the finance ministers of the G7, the richest countries, gather in London tomorrow for dinner, and then talks on Saturday.

This gathering has always been a worthy exercise. None of the members (Britain, the US, Japan, Canada, France, Germany and Italy) ever wants to dismiss it as pointless. Yet none wants to say that any agreement has been reached if it means that ground has been surrendered.

However, this round has a buzz attached to it that the past few have lacked. Some of that reflects Tony Blair’s success at forcing his “year of Africa” on to the G7 agenda, where normally it would get only a nod, if that.

His wrangling with Gordon Brown for the credit, and then the sheer showiness of last week’s Davos gathering, has heightened the anticipation.

To that end Britain has invited India, Brazil and South Africa, for the first time, and China, for the second time. Russia will be there, too; having lobbied its way into the new G8 grouping, it is now a perennial even at meetings of the G7.

The ministers are also set to have a separate meeting with Nelson Mandela. And the G7 coincides with Condoleezza Rice’s arrival, as part of a European and Middle Eastern tour, her first since becoming US Secretary of State.

Commanding the world’s attention is one thing; getting a deal is another. It does not look as though Britain is about to get practical commitments to its “Marshall Plan” for Africa. There is more support in the G7 for writing off African debt than there is for the Chancellor’s other notion of doubling aid to the continent. But the US has balked even on debt, looking sceptically on Britain’s claim that tackling poverty could tackle terrorism. France and Italy are onside in theory, but unsure in practice. Germany and Japan are not keen.

So the agenda is bound to be dominated by the subjects that would otherwise take up a G7 weekend, and China is top of the list. Although the Chinese presence is still a novelty, the talks will have something of a choreographed row. The US wants China to revalue its currency, fixed since 1994, and move to flexible exchange rates, to help it to reduce the current account deficits that are dragging down the dollar.

It will say so, yet again, in separate, bilateral meetings between John Snow, the US Treasury Secretary, and Chinese finance officials before the main meeting starts.

Other members will sit back and enjoy the spectacle. “Pressure on China never helps,” a German official said this week. For China, the needling is probably an easy price to pay for the prestige of sitting at the table and having access to the other discussions. The G7 regularly talks about trade. But the Doha Round of trade talks is almost paralysed. The last big drive to unblock it was stymied as much by India and Brazil, defending their own markets against the poorest countries, as by American and European farm subsidies, that source of reliable rage for would-be trading partners.

Here again, China is likely to be the focus of the discussions. G7 ministers want assurances that it will abide by the rules it accepted when it joined the World Trade Organisation in late 2001. Beyond that there is the staple of world growth. Here, finance ministers want to hear an account from Chinese officials about whether the country aims to sustain its rate of growth, and how it plans to stop the economy overheating.China is the inescapable strand running through all the other discussions — except Africa.

It is understandable that Blair and Brown want to use their presidency of the G8 this year to press home the cause. But it is hard to foresee success for them, given the resistance to their plans and the rival sense of urgency and excitement about China’s presence.

Explore World News

• World Agenda

• Iraq News

• US & Americas News

• Europe News

• Middle East News

• Afghanistan News

• Asia News

• Africa News

• Ireland News

Times Recommends

• Avatar takings hit $600m in ten days
• Orwell birthplace saved from being animal farm
• Bomb disposal squad is Times’s Team of the Year