Rafsanjani, 70, a Machiavellian cleric with a Cheshire cat smile, won only 21% of the votes after a campaign in which he wooed the country’s youth by portraying himself as a reformist. Some 70% of Iranians are under 30 and many are chafing at the bindings of the strict Islamic regime.

Rafsanjani’s lead in the results announced yesterday was much smaller than predicted. In what has turned into the closest election since the 1979 Islamic revolution, he faces a second round run-off against Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, 49, who has promised to “chop off the hands” of corrupt officials.

Ahmadinejad shocked observers by winning 19% of the votes cast on Friday. He was said to have been backed by the powerful Revolutionary Guards and the pious poor, who warmed to his anti-American rhetoric. Mehdi Karroubi, 68, a moderate cleric popular in rural areas, came third with 17.5%.

One of the greatest surprises was a poor showing by Mostafa Moin, 54, a reformer who secured just 14%. The frontrunner among liberals, he was popular with young people because of his pledge to protect the press, public and political freedoms and to release political prisoners. Members of the defeated reformist camp were expected to gather in Tehran today to plan their next move.

Analysts said Rafsanjani was likely to win the run-off as reformist voters switched to him to keep out Ahmadinejad.

Mohammad Reza-Khatami, the brother of Mohammad Khatami, the outgoing president, and a leading Moin supporter, said the Rafsanjani camp had called to ask for their backing in the second round. “With our support Ahmadinejad can be defeated,” said Rafsanjani’s aide.

Moin appeared to have been hurt by calls among his supporters for a boycott of the election. Arguing that no single candidate could make a difference under the theocratic system invented by Ayatollah Khomeini, the revolutionary leader, they demand a constitutional system where clerics do not have supreme power.

The turnout of 62% was higher than expected; hard-line leaders claimed that George W Bush, the American president, had boosted it by criticising the vote as undemocratic, angering many Iranians.

In Tehran, offices came to a standstill yesterday as workers crowded around televisions, alternately cheering and grimacing at the updated results with an excitement normally reserved for football matches.

As Rafsanjani’s predicted cakewalk began to look more like a hike across hot coals, everyone became a half-time expert. “He manipulated Iran’s youth because he knew they were the ones who didn’t remember the problems of his first two terms,” said Mohammed, a finance worker from north Tehran. “But he leant too far in that direction and lost the confidence of more conservative voters.”

Amir, a web designer, sat smoking outside his office. “It’s too hectic in there,” he said. “People are falling out. I think I’m going home.”

Asked for his predictions on the second round, he erred on the side of caution.

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