Members of Japan’s upper house will vote on Monday whether to privatise the postal service.

If the legislation is rejected and the Prime Minister calls an election, it could end his premiership and the nearly unbroken 50-year rule of his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

Unofficial polls suggest that Mr Koizumi will be defeated. In the lower house, the Bills were approved by just five votes and 37 LDP members voted against them. Although the governing coalition technically controls the smaller upper house, Mr Koizumi will lose if 18 LDP members rebel. Japanese newspapers suggested yesterday that between 16 and 21 will vote against their leader. The Bills schedule the sale of the four components of Japan Post: mail delivery, customer services, insurance, and postal savings. The organisation has 260,000 employees and is a powerful lobbying organisation. Many village postmasters are influential local figures who run organisations dedicated to the re-election of LDP MPs. The organisation is also used to fund inefficient public projects that enrich local businesses.

Mr Koizumi has dedicated his career to weakening this alliance of politicians, bureaucrats and businessmen. He has said that rebels will lose party backing, raising the possibility of a breakaway faction and the loss of the LDP’s majority.

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