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The pullout has provoked public demonstrations against what the settlers consider Sharon’s betrayal. In one of the largest, 150,000 people gathered on Thursday in Tel Aviv’s Rabin Square. Formerly known as Kings of Israel Square, it was where Yitzhak Rabin, then prime minister, was assassinated in 1995 by a zealot angered by the Oslo peace accords.
Public support for the protests is at best lukewarm. Recent polls show that the silent majority of Israelis support the Gaza withdrawal. “The feeling in the square tonight is we’re losing the battle,” said Israel, a protester who had travelled from Jerusalem to Tel Aviv on Thursday. “But we’ll go on fighting even when the sword is at our throats.”
If everything goes according to plan — a big “if” — there will be no Jewish settlers in Gaza in three weeks.
However, Sharon’s problems will be far from over. A poll in the newspaper Ha’aretz this weekend said 53% of Israelis would like him to step down, against 33% who want him to stay. Within his own Likud party 56.5% want him to go.
The man hoping to capitalise on this is Benjamin Netanyahu, a former prime minister who resigned last week as finance minister in protest at the pull-out. “Gaza will turn into a bastion of Islamist terrorists,” he declared, before reportedly leaving for America to raise funds for a political campaign to challenge Sharon.
Much, too, depends on the Palestinians. “We’ll continue our operations in the West Bank after the Israeli withdrawal,” warned Ramadan Shalah, head of the Damascus-based “Islamic Jihad” movement.
The Palestinian fear is that the Gaza pullout is a convenient ruse for the Israelis to consolidate their grip on the West Bank. Despite withdrawal from four of its more remote settlements, Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics has reported that 3,981 new “housing units” are under construction there.
At the same time, the government is building apartments and infrastructure on the outskirts of Jerusalem to consolidate its hold on the city that both Israelis and Palestinians claim as their capital. Sharon knows that far more Israelis are opposed to withdrawal from the West Bank than from Gaza.
In this febrile atmosphere, clashes seem almost inevitable. Hundreds of Palestinian youngsters in Gaza yesterday sported T-shirts with the slogan “Today Gaza, tomorrow Jerusalem”.
Both the Palestinian Authority and Hamas, the militant group, are preparing victory marches. Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian leader, has made his intentions clear: Gaza is the first but not the last.
The term “disengagement” from Gaza is a misnomer: for the moment Israel will retain control over the territory’s borders and crossing points and Palestinian air and sea space. Israel has also reserved itself the right to re-invade at will.
“In effect, Israel aims to isolate the Gaza Strip and cut it off from the rest of the world,” said Diana Buttu, a legal adviser working with the Palestine Liberation Organisation.
Most Israeli defence analysts agree and warn that if Israel neglects the negotiations with the Palestinians, violence will resume. “Let’s not live in a fantasy world,” said one expert. “There is only one way to prevent the resumption of the intifada and that is by further disengagement in the West Bank.”
Additional reporting: Hala Jaber
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