AS ONE British diplomat recently put it: “There are no big irritants in our relations with China. The Opium Wars were the last major irritant.”
Therein lie both an opportunity and a challenge for Tony Blair when he shakes hands with Wen Jiabao, the Prime Minister of China, next week in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.
The host is a leader of the land likely to be the next great power of the 21st century. The guest heads the government of a country that created the greatest empire of the 19th century.
With no serious irritants to sour relations, Mr Blair has an unparalleled chance to raise Britain’s profile in a country of 1.3 billion people that in just a few years has become the fastest-growing big economy.
However, his fleeting visit imposes limits. On Monday Mr Blair dons his Europe cap, with Britain holding the European presidency, to preside at an EU-China summit. Overnight he spends his second and final day in Beijing holding talks in his capacity as Prime Minister.
China will be eager to ensure that the talks go smoothly. In recent years Beijing has paid more attention to its relations with the EU, not only because of the business opportunities but because it views Europe as a counterweight to America.
As for Britain, China was pleasantly surprised when in 1997 it recovered Hong Kong intact to discover that the colonial power was not the perfidious Albion it had suspected would decamp with the city’s family silver. However, Beijing is more concerned about the future of spreading US influence in the Asia-Pacific region than about a country whose navy ruled the seas and waged the Opium Wars more than a century ago.
Foreign leaders have flocked to visit a nascent superpower. The German Chancellor has come every year for the past decade, often bringing delegations of hundreds of businessmen eager for a slice of the fabled future China market. The French President has engaged in a charm offensive, maintaining a private correspondence with China’s previous President and taking an interest in Chinese poetry and calligraphy. Mr Blair has set up a China task force, which many British businessmen complain has yet to prove effective. Britain may be the largest European investor in China, but that is largely because of huge BP ventures. Without BP, it still lags behind France and Germany.
This visit will be Mr Blair’s third to China, and his shortest. His day wearing his European cap will be long on symbolism. The garment dispute between China and Europe is an issue to be resolved by officials at a less senior level, leaving Mr Blair to persuade China to promote progress on his favourite topic of climate change. Documents to be signed could include a deal to explore technological co-operation to reduce carbon emissions, an issue on which he made some progress when he played host to President Hu Jintao at the G8 summit in July.
That leaves Day 2. Britain wants more progress on halting illegal immigrants, since China is among the top four countries whose citizens are sneaking in. It does not want a repeat of such tragedies as the drownings last year in Morecambe Bay or in 2000 when 58 Chinese suffocated in the back of a lorry heading for Dover. Already Chinese officials are in Britain to help with the complex process of identifying and repatriating such offenders .
On Mr Blair’s plane will be 40 leaders of the British business world. They will sign $2 billion of contracts next Tuesday, but how much of that is new is unclear. Financial services is an area where Britain could make more headway in China, according to Peter Batey, chairman of Vermilion Partners and an experienced China businessman. Mr Blair’s visit is an opportunity to push China to remove restrictions on banking and finance.
Mr Blair himself will focus on cultural issues such as a dance masterclass, museum exchanges and, no doubt, football — a game for which China shares a national obsession. The two countries, however, have more in common than David Beckham. Beijing is to play host to the 2008 Olympics and will hand over the torch to London for 2012, thus ensuring sport will figure high.
Apart from Beckham, many Chinese still have only a rudimentary knowledge of things British. Many believe the streets of London are shrouded in smog and populated by well-mannered gentlemen in bowler hats. That may be changing.
More Chinese are studying in Britain than in any other European country. Permission from July for Chinese tour groups to visit may result in greater fame for things British than a single trip by Mr Blair could achieve.
France has sought to boost ties with a French Year in China, which followed on the heels of the China Year in France. “That’s not our style,” said one British diplomat.
It may be a more low-key approach than the French fanfare but it is a style to which China’s Communist Party leaders, veterans of formality and protocol, are happy to relate. It is a style set to result in an agreement next week on co-operation between Chinese and British museums, a precursor to an exhibition of treasures from the Palace Museum in Beijing at the Royal Academy in November.
The Three Emperors, 1662- 1795, an exhibition supported by The Times, will present riches from the three greatest Qing dynasty rulers. It could be followed by opportunities for the British Museum to ship over some of its wonders to show in Chinese museums.
This type of agreement will help to lighten the atmosphere when Mr Blair sits down for a formal banquet with Mr Wen. In those awkward pauses, small problems may assume a greater importance. Human rights in China is never far from the top of the list and is of particular sensitivity this time. The pressure may also be raised on Beijing to make progress in talks with representatives of the exiled Tibetan Dalai Lama.
The Chinese may not have forgotten the Opium Wars, but they are ready to set aside old scores if the burgeoning middle classes have more chances to shop for Burberry scarves in London or to bank with Standard Chartered in China.
Making a success of themselves
22,000 Chinese tourists spent £17 million in Britain in 2004. Visitors are expected to increase this year after Britain welcomed Chinese tour groups from July
