In an American military hospital hundreds of miles to the north, a woman candidate was fighting for her life after gunmen ambushed and shot her as she campaigned to represent her home province of Nuristan.

In Kandahar another candidate woke to answer her telephone and heard a chilling voice tell her: “If you run for parliament, your children will never wake again.”

As the clock ticks down to tomorrow’s historic parliamentary elections, the first for more than three decades, a surge in violence against candidates has reminded Afghans how pre- carious is their transition to democracy. Although Taleban insurgents threaten to derail the elections, security officials talk confidently of election day passing without a big incident.

But, after the bloodiest 12 months since the fall of the Taleban four years ago, others believe that the close of the polls may not mean an end to the violence. Sore losers, including powerful warlords, former militants and militia leaders, could well resort to the gun.

Security officials refer to the expected three weeks of vote-counting as the “free-fire” period of violence as the results become clearer. The failure of former and current Taleban allies at the polls could also encourage a return to the insurgency by those who had given up the fight.

“Right now, almost everyone has some stake in these elections, so they are all waiting to see who wins,” a Western diplomat said. “If they don’t get what they want, that’s when you’ll see them go back to their guns.”

Election observers are worried by the so-called “assassination clause”, which allows a loser to take the place of a winning candidate if he dies before taking up his seat. The clause was blamed for a rash of assassinations in Cambodia after elections there in 1991, the last time such a rule was used.

Human rights organisations have urged coalition countries not to reduce their troop numbers too quickly once the election is over following reports that the United States was planning to scale down its military presence.

For now the only focus for the tens of thousands of Afghan and international troops and security forces is protecting polling stations from attack, mostly by Taleban insurgents. The greatest threat is in the restive south and east of the country, where attacks have risen dramatically in the run-up to the election, which marks the end of Afghanistan’s four-year transition to full democracy and sovereignty.

Taleban insurgents have repeatedly targeted election workers, candidates and even voters in remote areas such as Zabul and Oruzgan. In the latest incident this week, seven civilians were shot dead when gunmen discovered that they were carrying voter cards.

Voters face a bewildering choice of 5,800 candidates for a national assembly and 34 provincial councils. Because of an historical antipathy to political parties, born of the years of communist rule and Mujahidin wars, all candidates are running as individuals without any stated allegiance.

Analysts fear the system is likely to produce a weak parliament paralysed by internecine squabbling that will disappoint the aspirations of ordinary Afghans for a functioning democracy. Even so, millions are determined to brave the threats and come out to vote.

“If we want to bring an end to the fighting, this is the time we have to be brave,” the Kandahar candidate who received death threats said, but she still pleaded for her name not to be used.

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