THE German conservative leader Angela Merkel appeared to be gaining the upper hand this weekend in the struggle to become the next chancellor, after an inconclusive election result produced one of the most extraordinary weeks in the country’s post-war politics.

Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), narrow winners of last Sunday’s poll, insisted yesterday that she must lead a “grand coalition” with Gerhard Schröder’s Social Democratic party (SPD) — the only combination that looks able to secure a majority in Germany’s fractured parliament.

“We went into the election with Angela Merkel as our candidate for chancellor, the CDU is the strongest force and therefore it is clear that the chancellor must be Angela Merkel,” declared Peter Müller, the state premier of Saarland.

The conservatives’ position seems to have been strengthened by signs within the SPD that it might ultimately be obliged to ditch Schröder, despite his attempts to portray himself as the true victor.

A number of the chancellor’s senior party allies — including some influential state premiers — have begun to hint that he should consider stepping down after seven years in power. “I’ve got the impression that Schröder still needs to come back down to earth after his big election campaign,” said Henning Scherf, premier of the city state of Bremen.

Merkel’s party, by contrast, gave the impression of standing solidly behind her.

The real surprise is that the opposition leader should have found herself in such a situation. Opinion polls had predicted that the CDU would be a clear winner, with enough seats to form a government with the Free Democratic party, its preferred partner, or at least as the dominant force in a “grand coalition”. Instead it won just 35.2%, less than one percentage point ahead of the SPD.

As Merkel watched her lead gradually whittled away on election night, she could hear the first grumblings of discontent among the party faithful. “We knew she was a lame horse from the start,” said one angry politician, unable to drink his victory champagne.

Schröder, meanwhile, was insisting that the narrowness of his rival’s victory meant he was as much the winner as she was.

Merkel has since seized back the initiative. Although she was initially forced to fend off complaints from within her party that her cold, calculating character had scared away voters, the same qualities now appear be giving the former physicist the edge in what the German media call her game of kanzlerpoker (chancellor poker).

A serious blow to Schröder came from Joschka Fischer, head of the Greens, with whom Schröder has ruled Germany since 1998. In a move that seemed to spell the end of any attempt to extend their ruling Red-Green coalition, the foreign minister announced his return to the bank benches.

As pressure mounted on Schröder to follow suit, he indicated support for a bizarre attempt to abrogate a 40-year-old law under which Merkel’s CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU) are considered a single parliamentary entity. This would have confirmed the SPD as the largest political force, but the idea was soon dropped.

The only consolation for the chancellor was that suggestions that Merkel might strike a deal with the FDP and the Greens — nicknamed the “Jamaica coalition” after the parties’ black, yellow and green colours — appeared unlikely to lead anywhere. Victory for Merkel is nevertheless far from assured.

Johannes Kahrs, an influential SPD politician, yesterday suggested a compromise under which Schröder would remain chancellor for another two years and then hand over to Merkel. Christian Wulff, the influential Christian Democrat state premier of Lower Saxony, called the idea “ridiculous”.

Even more curious is the suggestion from within the SPD that Schröder might agree to step down, but only if Merkel follows. Wulff and Roland Koch, the leader of Hesse, have both been tipped as possible replacements for Merkel.

Peer Steinbrück, the Social Democratic former premier of North Rhine-Westphalia, has already signalled he would be prepared to abandon Schröder to enter a grand coalition as vice-chancellor.

“Schröder’s claim to victory is untenable but time is running out for both challengers,” said Axel Murswieck, a political commentator. “His aim now appears to be to take Merkel down with him as a sort of final blow against conservatism.”

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