Smash hit

The CIA concluded that Ahmadinejad, the son of a blacksmith, does not appear in any of the photographs taken at the time. Since then, US experts have been struggling to define the political philosophy of the man who won a surprise victory in the elections last June.

The early conclusions are startling. Although there could scarcely be two more different political capitals than Washington and Tehran, regional experts have found remarkable parallels in the careers of the Iranian and American presidents. Were it not for their different languages and family backgrounds, Bush and Ahmadinejad might be political “soulmates”, according to Juan Cole, a Middle East historian at the University of Michigan.

Both men relied on right-wing religious forces for their recent election success. Both campaigned as comparative “outsiders”, denouncing their respective political establishments. Bush first ran for president as governor of Texas and frequently criticised Washington insiders; Ahmadinejad ran as mayor of Tehran denouncing central government corruption.

Both men have exploited their personal piety — Bush with evangelical Christians and Ahmadinejad with fundamentalist Muslims. And both see themselves not as intellectual policy makers but as down-to-earth problem solvers.

Bush, a former businessman, runs his administration on a corporate model; Ahmadinejad, who has a doctorate in engineering, made his political reputation as a manager of Tehran’s sprawling municipality.

The similarities may also extend to an unswerving belief in their nations’ rectitude and a refusal to admit to mistakes. In the case of Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the two men are set on a collision course that neither seems interested in avoiding.

Yet just as Bush is struggling to placate his right-wing supporters after a series of embarrassing setbacks, so Ahmadinejad may soon find it hard to keep up his belligerent approach.

The Iranian president has already suffered the Bush-like indignity of having one of his nominees rejected for a government post — the Iranian parliament recently vetoed his choice for the key post of oil minister.

His outbursts represent a striking departure from the more outgoing foreign policy moderation favoured by Mohammad Khatami, his predecessor. They may also be raising eyebrows among a significant minority of Iranian reformers who see opening up to the West as inevitable. In a direct contradiction of Ahmadinejad’s remarks, Ali Akbar Rafsanjani, the former president who is regarded as a moderating figure, told a prayer ceremony on Friday: “We have no problems with Jews and highly respect Judaism as a holy religion.”

Although the new president remains close to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Itan’s powerful spiritual leader, he was elected mainly on domestic pledges to clean up government and to spend oil profits on the poor.

His promises largely depend on buoyant oil income that might rapidly dry up if his anti-Zionist rhetoric precipitates an international crisis — such as a pre-emptive Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear or oil installations.

Iranian officials have already moved once to soothe the oil markets after Ahmadinejad was quoted by a Dubai newspaper as saying that Iran would restrict its oil sales if it was referred to the UN security council over its nuclear programme.

All of which explains why Bolton limited himself to saying that Ahmadinejad’s remarks about Israel were “pernicious and unacceptable”.

America is beginning to learn that the less it says about Iran, the more pressure is generated on the regime from elsewhere.

Additional reporting: Flora Bagenal

THE WORLD ACCORDING TO AHMADINEJAD

Iranians possess delicate characteristics. They introduce their merits, which are extremely attractive to the whole world

Thanks to the blood of the martyrs, a new Islamic revolution has arisen and the Islamic revolution of (today) will, God willing, cut off the roots of injustice in the world

We did not have a revolution in order to have a democracy

Acquiring peaceful nuclear technology is the demand of the whole Iranian nation, and the rulers must put all their efforts into realising this demand

I will cut the hands off the mafias of powers and factions who have a grasp on our oil, I stake my life on this

My phone bill is so high because my children use the internet so much

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