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Military sources said the commanders of Israeli artillery batteries surrounding the Gaza Strip were instructed last week to take a more aggressive stance if Palestinian rockets were fired into Israel. “We will shell Gaza in response to Palestinian fire,” said one officer.
Similar instructions were also believed to have been issued to forces on Israel’s northern border with Lebanon. “We can expect the weeks to come to be very tense,” said an Israeli army officer. “Already the situation on the northern border with Lebanon is highly charged, and we have been instructed not to tolerate any Hezbollah provocations as we have done so far.”
The timing of such orders has prompted speculation that they may have been politically motivated. Sharon, 77, who was pondering this weekend whether to remain at the helm of his right-wing Likud party or start a new political force, faces a growing challenge from Amir Peretz, 53, a former trade union activist who became Labour leader earlier this month.
Although Sharon is still ahead, analysts say Labour could overtake him if the election is fought on the economy — which polls indicate is a greater preoccupation for voters than defence.
Deteriorating security, however, could work in Sharon’s favour, allowing him to contrast his own past military glories with Peretz’s relative lack of army experience.
“If the cannons begin to roar, Labour won’t stand a chance,” said Danny Avraham, a Labour activist.
Using the military to achieve political goals is nothing new in Israeli politics. In 1981 Menachem Begin, the Likud prime minister, launched an airstrike on the Iraqi nuclear plant at Osirak and went on to score an emphatic victory over Labour.
Labour, too, has resorted to such tactics in the past. Just after the 1973 Yom Kippur war Golda Meir, the Labour leader, was having problems forming a government. She created tension on the border with Syria and the resulting emergency enabled her to form an administration.
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