THE timetable for Turkey to join the EU appeared to slip yesterday when José Manuel Barroso, President of the European Commission, gave his most pessimistic view of the country’s progress towards membership since formal talks began a year ago.

Senhor Barroso said that it could be up to 20 years before Turkey joined. He was highlighting a slowdown in reforms as he prepared the ground for a critical assessment report.

Turkey’s case has suffered blows in recent weeks, including last week’s vote by French deputies to criminalise denial of the First World War Armenian genocide, an event never recognised as such by Ankara.

While Senhor Barroso has made clear that this is not a criterion for EU membership, he gave a clear signal that Turkey was failing to meet formal demands that include guarantees for freedom of speech and greater civilian control over the military. He told the BBC: “We are concerned about Turkey because the pace of reforms is rather slow from our point of view. I believe it would be great to have Turkey if Turkey respects all the economic and political criteria.

“This is not yet the case. It is a country that comes from a different tradition. There are efforts in the right direction but nowadays there is news that is not encouraging in terms of them coming closer to us.”

This was a warning to expect a bleak assessment by Olli Rehn, the EU Enlargement Commissioner, who is due to give an update on Turkish efforts to prepare for the 35 EU entry criteria on November 8.

When formal talks began with Ankara last year, Mr Rehn spoke of “about ten to fifteen years timeframe” before conditions would be right. Senhor Barroso has been reluctant to put his own target on the process but yesterday showed how much Turkey’s case had slipped in 12 months, saying: “We cannot expect Turkey to become a member in less than 15 to 20 years.”

His assessment will provoke fresh concern in Ankara, which is coming under intense pressure to step up reform and, in particular, to resolve its blockade of vessels from Cyprus.

A failure to do so before the end of the year could lead to a suspension of the formal EU accession talks. But before a Turkish general election next year Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Prime Minister, is said to have refused to give any further concessions while Turkish northern Cyprus remains unrecognised by the international community.

Mr Rehn spoke in the summer of the need to avoid a “train crash” in Turkish accession negotiations. Austria and France want to hold national referendums on further enlargement, adding to the hurdles that Turkey must overcome.

Speaking before Senhor Barroso’s remarks, Mr Erdogan said yesterday that Jacques Chirac, the French President, had expressed his regret to him over the Bill. “Because of certain narrow-minded deputies, the France we know as a country of liberties is forced to live with this shame,” Mr Erdogan said. The Bill, opposed by M Chirac’s party, was approved at first reading by the National Assembly but without government backing is unlikely to become law.

Turkish business and consumer groups have threatened to boycott French products.

Miguel Ángel Moratinos, the Spanish Foreign Minister, met his Turkish counterpart yesterday for talks backed by the EU on resolving the Cyprus issue.

Senhor Barroso is expected to tell Tony Blair at a meeting today that the Commission recommends that EU states do not restrict immigration from new members during a seven-year transition period, even though they have the right.

Britain has said that there will be some restrictions after the arrival of large numbers of Polish workers after Poland’s entry in 2004. Senhor Barroso said: “If you look at the past, there was a fear that Spanish workers would be flooding all over Europe. You know what happened? Exactly the opposite. I can tell that Poland can be a new Spain in some years. The growth of these countries is really impressive,” he said.

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