The statesman-like statue of Laurent Désiré Kabila, who in 1997 overthrew the dictator Mobutu Sese Seko, for 32 years Africa’s most venal leader, stands as a daily reminder to the citizens of this sprawling, fetid city of how dramatically power has changed hands over the past ten years. In the final round of a presidential election tomorrow, many residents believe that it can change back again.

President Kabila is still the front-runner, but he is being pushed more closely than anticipated by his main rival, who has exploited the young President’s unpopularity in the capital and suspicions over his “natural roots”, based on his exile in Tanzania.

An angry aide, pointing at the statue, recently yelled at the President: “That, look at that, it will be the first thing to go if you lose.” Hardline supporters have accused him of being too soft on the Opposition and urged him to be more like his ruthless father. Backed by the armies of English-speaking Uganda and Rwanda, Mr Kabila’s father, known as “Mzee” (a respectful Swahili term for old man), swept across the country from the east to capture Kinshasa. The west of the country, which speaks French and Lingala and includes Kinshasa, never accepted him nor the easterners whom he brought into power.

In the first round on July 30, Mr Kabila took almost 45 per cent of the votes but fell short of the 50 per cent required to win outright. His nearest rival, the 43-year-old former rebel leader Jean-Pierre Bemba, took 20 per cent, but has since received the backing of more than half of the other 31 first-round candidates.

The President is popular in the east for ending a brutal war from 1998 to 2003, which followed a dispute between his father and his former allies, largely over the distribution of the country’s huge mineral wealth, but he struggles to gain acceptance elsewhere. Most of the war, in which an estimated four million people were killed, was fought along the borders of Uganda and Rwanda. These countries supported rival militia groups, including one operated by Mr Bemba, which stands accused of massacres, rapes and pillaging.

Heeding criticism that he was leaving too much to chance, Mr Kabila has turned to an unlikely source for help, the son of the dictator that his father overthrew. He has done a deal with François Joseph Mobutu Nzanga, who in return for a top post in government has promised to deliver the western home state of Equateur.

Mr Mobutu took 5 per cent in the first round and says that he can deliver all of the votes to the Kabila camp. Independent analysts agree. Equateur is one of the few places in a country larger than Western Europe that benefited during Mobutu senior’s rule, which is primarily remembered for the wholesale looting of state resources.

Mr Bemba, who himself married into the Mobutu clan, and others in the west of the country are infuriated by the deal.

On Thursday, the tensions burst into the open. Mr Mobutu was taken hostage after his bodyguards clashed with Bemba supporters outside a radio station in Gbadolite, in the north.Four people were reported killed — three policemen and a soldier loyal to Mr Bemba. The stand-off ended after UN forces threatened to intervene with a tank and other heavy weaponry. Mr Bemba, who can still take more votes in the east than the President can in the west, has been accused of spreading insecurity, which could lead to a reduced turnout.

On July 30 the poll, supported by the UN, produced an 80 per cent turnout in the east, with nearly all of it going the way of the incumbent.

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