IF Robert Gates had any illusions about the scale of violence in Iraq, they were dispelled when he flew into Baghdad last summer.

Gates, who was named US defence secretary last week by President George W Bush, had gone to observe conditions at first hand as a member of the Iraq Study Group, the independent commission co-chaired by James Baker, the former secretary of state. It was a terrifying experience.

As the aircraft entered Iraqi airspace, the team donned helmets and flak jackets. “You’re dropping 10,000ft and you’ve got to avoid missiles. As soon as you land, you’re flown by helicopter to the green (international) zone. There were attack helicopters all around us firing flares to make sure that the heat-seeking missiles didn’t hit us,” said one of his travelling companions.

Once there, Gates met the key players from the American ambassador and US generals to Nouri al-Maliki, Iraq’s beleaguered prime minister. A close associate described him as “distraught over the incompetence of how the Iraq operation had been run”.

He went on to ask sharp questions, including whether more American troops were needed to shore up the Iraqi capital.

“Gates is open to a lot of suggestions. He hasn’t got a closed mind,” the source added.

Donald Rumsfeld, his predecessor at the Pentagon, has never been regarded as a listener. After the pasting Bush received in the midterm elections last week, it was clear his tough-minded defence secretary was going to take the fall for a war that has claimed the lives of 2,846 American soldiers. But the pressure is on Gates to do more than canvass opinions. Will he be able to take the hard decisions necessary to chart a new course in Iraq?

Bush claimed last week that he was “open to any ideas” on how to win in Iraq. He is to meet members of the Baker commission tomorrow to discuss their thinking. On Tuesday Tony Blair will give evidence to them by video link. He will urge the Bush administration to open talks with Iran and Syria on a Middle East settlement.

Gates will not take much persuading from Blair, having argued for dialogue with Iran two years ago. “He comes from the old Bush 1 school that it’s important to talk to your enemies, but we can’t underestimate the role the president plays in all this and he’s been pretty intransigent,” said a colleague on the Iraq Study Group.

The irony is that Gates will no longer participate in the Baker group’s meetings as he is in purdah until he can be confirmed in his post by the Senate, probably next month. Around the same time, the Baker group is due to finalise its report.

A new direction for Iraq cannot come too soon. According to the Iraqi health minister, 150,000 Iraqis have been killed since the US invasion. The Baghdad morgue received 1,600 victims of violent deaths last month, compared with 1,100 in September. Two bombs in one of the capital’s crowded markets killed eight people yesterday.

Inside the Pentagon, some old hands are wondering whether the coolly analytical Gates, a former head of the CIA and friend of the first President George Bush, is enough of a risk-taker to turn the situation around.

“He tacks right to the middle,” said a defence source. “He’s the guy who can hold the reins, get confirmed and get through the next two years without the Democrats cutting off the money.” But can he produce an effective plan for victory? The Democrats are already laying plans for a withdrawal timetable now that they control Congress. Senator Carl Levin, prospective chairman of the Senate armed services committee, said the Iraqis needed to know there was “no open-ended commitment”.

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