A FORMER Iraqi prime minister who is tipped to return as a “strongman” leader if Baghdad’s faltering government falls has challenged the American-led coalition’s objective of creating a western-style democracy even though the country is in turmoil.
Iyad Allawi, an ally of the United States and Britain who ran the first Iraqi government after the fall of Saddam Hussein, said that elections were no solution when the overriding problem was a security crisis caused by militias who had infiltrated the police and were killing with impunity. The slaughter has triggered an exodus of middle-class professionals.
“Iraq was not and is not ready for elections,” Allawi said in an interview last week.
With sectarian violence spiralling out of control and the government of Nouri al-Maliki unable to stop it, Allawi said that various political groupings were discussing alternatives.
These included the possibility that Iraq’s parliament might now be forced to override the results of last January’s elections and appoint a new administration of technocrats with free rein to confront the militias head on if necessary.
Maliki has repeatedly promised to disarm the death squads but has failed to curb the powers of the Mahdi army headed by Moqtada al-Sadr, the radical Shi’ite cleric, or the Badr organisation, the armed wing of one of the leading political parties, the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI). Maliki depends heavily on the support of Sadr and SCIRI.
Allawi believes that if the militias refuse to halt their violence they should be wiped out. “We need to have a strong core of military and police loyal to the country with a clear cut leadership who can implement law and order in the country and take the militias out — by force if necessary, if dialogue fails,” he said.
He also warned that a crackdown would require a radical overhaul of the security forces and the establishment of a new police service capable of commanding trust. The current forces lacked a strong chain of command, he said, and most of the people in them owed their allegiance to particular political leaders rather than the country as a whole.
Allawi’s comments coincided with growing speculation that the Iraq Study Group, co-chaired by James Baker, the former US secretary of state, will conclude in its report next month that stability and security are the most important objectives, rather than an American-imposed ideal of democracy.
One idea circulating in Washington is to let a “strongman” impose order, allowing US forces to hand over responsibility for security to the Iraqis and begin a staged withdrawal. George W Bush recently had to reassure Maliki that he was not seeking to unseat him, but he has gone on to define success in Iraq as “a government that can defend, govern and sustain itself”, toning down his prodemocracy rhetoric.
Iraqi politicians have held discreet meetings in recent weeks to discuss a change of government, including talks in Dubai. Allawi denied taking part but confirmed that he was aware of the Dubai talks and others in Baghdad and Amman. Some are understood to have been conducted with the knowledge of American officials.
Asked whether he would be willing to lead a new government, Allawi said he had found his premiership “so lonely” — but hinted that he could be ready to “give it a final try”.
Sipping water in the sitting room of a west London hotel, Allawi, 61, said the current crisis could be not be allowed to continue. Last Tuesday more than 100 people were kidnapped in broad daylight from an education ministry research institute by Shi’ite militiamen wearing police uniforms. On Wednesday 105 people died violently, 54 of them tortured and shot.
“Things cannot be left as they stand now,” said Allawi.
The present government needed help to be strong but if it could not do its job, new people should be appointed to senior posts or a fresh administration formed, he said. Otherwise violence, extremism and sectarianism would escalate and institutionalised militias would end up controlling every region of the country and even the judiciary.
“If the militias continue to get out of control, it will be very difficult to control them in the future,” Allawi warned.
While Iraq was not in a fit state for elections, it was crying out for security and the restoration of basic services and a decent way of life, he said: “Then Iraqis may be ready for elections to decide who they want without being manipulated.”
Allawi said that he had told friends in the West that they could not “photocopy” their democratic systems and impose them on Iraq and the Third World. “You can’t just get out of tyranny and go to the ballot and choose,” he said Allawi, a Shi’ite and a neurologist, fell out with Saddam and left Baghdad in the late 1970s. He later survived an assassination attempt in London when assailants burst into his bedroom armed with knives and axes,and seriously wounded him.
As leader of the Iraqi National Accord opposition group, he was reported to be close to American and British intelligence services in the run-up to the 2003 invasion. He then ran a government that was criticised by opponents for being too close to the Americans. He was resented by Shi’ite religious leaders after ordering an attack on the Mahdi army in Najaf and by Sunnis after he approved a joint US-Iraqi operation to storm the insurgent stronghold of Falluja.
His term as prime minister ended in April last year when the mainly Shi’ite United Iraqi alliance bloc swept into power. But with security deteriorating under Maliki, Washington is growing increasingly impatient with the present Iraqi leadership. Last week General John Abizaid, the commander of US forces in the Middle East, warned Maliki that he must disband the Shi’ite militias and give America proof that they had been disarmed.
Allawi, who is due to return to Iraq in the next few days after receiving medical treatment in London for hypertension, called for a “strong axis of moderation” in the Middle East, echoing Tony Blair’s call last week for regional talks and renewed efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian issue. Regional support could help Iraq to achieve security, he said.
He appealed for national reconciliation in a drive to build strong state institutions and re-establish the supremacy of law and the independence of the judiciary. “Everybody in Iraq should make a conscious decision and do whatever it takes to save the country before it reaches a point of no return,” he warned.
