FIDEL CASTRO, Cuba’s leader for the past 47 years, failed to attend a birthday parade in his honour yesterday, prompting renewed speculation that he is close to death.

A seat was reserved for him on the main podium in Revolution Square, Havana, alongside all the top brass in the western hemisphere’s last communist country, to watch the biggest military parade Cuba has held in decades.

Instead his brother Raul, Cuba’s acting president, delivered the address to a crowd estimated at 300,000.

Castro’s absence immediately provoked questions about what is wrong with him and whether the world’s longest-serving political leader — he has outlasted nine American presidents — can ever return to power.

Since he underwent gastric surgery to stem intestinal bleeding in July, the 80-year-old president has not been seen in public. Occasional videos have been released, showing him pyjama-clad and gaunt, to counter rumours that he is already dead.

His birthday celebrations were postponed until yesterday to give him time to recover from the operation, which US officials believe was for terminal cancer. They have predicted since the summer that he has less than a year to live.

Analysts immediately pointed out that if there were any realistic chance of Castro making a comeback he would have appeared yesterday. The future of the country is now uncertain. In an apparently conciliatory move, Raul reiterated a call for negotiations with the United States to end their decades-long stand-off, but emphasised that any talks must be based on the principles of “non-interference and mutual respect”.

Castro would not have made such an open call for dialogue, observers say, though it is Cuba’s official position. Raul appeared to be looking beyond the presidency of George W Bush, adding: “We are prepared to wait patiently for the moment when common sense takes place in the halls of power in Washington.”

At the end of his speech, Raul shouted “Viva Fidel”, but said nothing about his brother’s health. Senior Cuban government figures still insist that Castro is recuperating satisfactorily, and will be back.

“We will ask President Castro to lead us for many years to come,” declared Carlos Lage, the country’s de facto prime minister, last week.

Yesterday’s celebrations, which ended up more like a wake, appeared originally to have been planned to provide a spectacular backdrop to the old man’s return to centre stage.

The Cubans who packed into Havana’s streets had not seen a display like it in years. MiG jets flew overhead, ancient Soviet-era tanks and missile launchers rumbled by, and schoolchildren declared their eternal loyalty to the revolution.

It was meant to be a double celebration, not only of the birthday but also of the anniversary of the landing of the yacht Granma, which in 1956 brought the Castro brothers, Che Guevara, and a handful of other revolutionaries (many of whom still hold senior positions in the Cuban government) back to Cuba from exile in Mexico. A replica of the yacht was rolled through the streets.

The spirit of the revolution was reflected in some of the guests at yesterday’s festivities. In Havana were two of Latin America’s new left-wing leaders, Bolivia’s Evo Morales and Nicaragua’s president-elect Daniel Ortega.

Castro’s closest ally and main benefactor, Hugo Chavez, the Venezuelan president, could not make it as he faces elections today. He has promised to dedicate his widely expected victory to his mentor.

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