IN A grim state-owned apartment block in the hills above Caracas, Teresa Chacon and her friend Elena Uzcategui were arguing about the Venezuelan president, Hugo Chavez, and whether he deserved to be re-elected today.

Chacon confessed to disillusion at the undiminished levels of crime, corruption and government incompetence after eight years of Chavez’s volcanic rule. Yet she reckoned she would vote for him, because “he’s the only president we’ve ever had who worried about the poor”.

Uzcategui snorted. “You should vote for the opposition, because at least you’ll be able to get rid of them if you decide you don’t like them,” she said. “If you vote for Chavez, he’ll be there for at least 15 years.”

Uzcategui was far from alone last week in fearing that a victory by Chavez could turn him, like Cuba’s ailing Fidel Castro, into a president-for-life.

Western countries have concluded that a Chavez win is likely to be followed by constitutional change that would scrap present limits and enable this to happen. Chavez, 52, has promised a referendum on the issue by 2010 and has hinted that he intends to remain in office for at least another 30 years.

The leaders of the West may soon be facing decades of taunting by a maverick populist who routinely refers to President George W Bush as “the devil” and who has made waves across Latin America by supporting radical leftists.

Yet despite both foreign and local concerns about Chavez’s autocratic tendencies, he seems to be heading for a comfortable victory over Manuel Rosales, a regional governor from Maracaibo who is opposing him.

Latest surveys suggest that Chavez is likely to win, by fair means or foul, at least 60% of the vote. If he is held to less than that, it would be a remarkable achievement for Rosales, who has been standing not only against a charismatic incumbent but also against an entire government propaganda machine geared to smearing him as a dangerous American agent.

For all the support he has harnessed with his welfare “missions” to spend Venezuela’s oil income on programmes for the poor, Chavez has failed to transform the lives of millions in the barrios. Corrupt and incompetent bureaucracy has in many areas slowed or obstructed welfare reforms. The crime rate has soared, exacerbated by a brutal police force.

“It seems unlikely that Chavez can really win big,” said one Caracas analyst. “If he does, that may be an indication of fraud.”

It may also be a sign that he is determined to reshape Venezuelan politics on a Cuban model. He has talked of his desire to replace the ruling government coalition of 24 separate parties with a single party, resembling Castro’s communist party.

“Chavez is in many ways a very clever man,” said Margarita Lopez-Maya, another analyst. “But his democratic principles are not very evident.”

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