At the Pentagon, the joint chiefs of staff are also determined not to be pushed into “managing defeat” after the Iraq Study Group, led by James Baker, the former secretary of state, and former Democrat congressman Lee Hamilton, reports this week.

A backlash from the right against the long-awaited report is gathering force. The neo-conservative journal, The Weekly Standard, has derided the Baker group’s work as “a fancy way of justifying surrender”. A photo-shoot last week of the co-chairmen by celebrity photographer Annie Leibovitz for Men’s Vogue magazine has been greeted with much amusement.

The Men’s Vogue Study Group, as the 10-member commission was soon renamed, is long on puffery and short on military expertise, critics point out. “They are a lot of greybeards with little knowledge of military operations,” said Dan Goure, a defence analyst at the Lexington Institute in Virginia. “This group is all about creating a political consensus among the elite.”

This week is pivotal for American policy on Iraq with confirmation hearings opening into the nomination of Robert Gates, a former CIA director, as the new defence secretary, followed by the release of the 100-page Iraq Study Group (ISG) report on Wednesday. Tony Blair will fly in that day for a White House summit.

With the White House, Pentagon, State Department and CIA all reviewing the options for Iraq, the ISG’s recommendations will be just “one input”, according to Stephen Hadley, the national security adviser.

The Baker commission is expected to recommend the gradual withdrawal of US combat forces, leaving roughly 70,000 troops — half the current number — as embedded trainers, advisers and logistical experts, or as part of a rapid reaction unit. The Shi’ite-led Iraqi government will be urged to forge a new power-sharing deal with the minority Sunni community and split oil revenue more fairly.

In essence the military strategy is similar to that pursued by the Bush administration, which has been seeking to draw down forces “as circumstances permit” since the 2003 invasion. The larger question is whether America will begin to “cut and walk” even if Iraqi security forces aren’t yet ready to replace them.

Donald Rumsfeld, the outgoing defence secretary, submitted a classified memo to the White House two days before his resignation which called for a major change of course that would ensure America did not appear to “lose” in Iraq.

He suggested drastically reducing the number of US bases in Iraq from 55 to 10 or 15 by April 2007, beefing up the number of embedded troops, drawing down combat units while retaining a counter-terrorist force and stationing US troops along the Iranian and Syrian border. The Iraqis would be obliged to “pull their socks up”, Rumsfeld noted.

Despite the convergence in tactics, Bush is alarmed by the potentially damaging impression given by the Baker group that America is determined to exit from Iraq come what may. He also repeated last week that Iran would have to give up its nuclear programme before the US would be willing to enter into direct talks.

The joint chiefs are said to be concerned that “if you declare Iraq a failure and you want to negotiate with Iran and Syria, it is horrible for all the parents who believe their children died for something”, according to a defence source.

A phased withdrawal is being tested in Kurdish areas, where General Benjamin Mixon is set to hand over responsibility to the Iraqis by the spring of 2007, following roughly the same timetable as for Britain’s departure from Basra in the south.

Some State Department officials are suggesting that America should stop trying to appease Sunni insurgents and concentrate on shoring up the Shi’ite-led government. Bush is to meet Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, the powerful head of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) in Washington tomorrow. “If we have to pick sides, it will be the Shi’ites,” said Goure. “It is the only strategy because they are the majority.”

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