IT couldn’t happen again, could it? Not for the first time in American history, a president, a blonde and a birthday party are converging on New York for what may prove a politically explosive start to Senator Hillary Clinton’s long-awaited campaign for the White House.

When Bill Clinton, the former president, turns 60 in August, his friends are hoping to fete him with the most glamorous birthday bash of the year. Royalty and heads of state are expected to be among the guests at Madison Square Garden, the legendary New York venue where a flimsily dressed Marilyn Monroe crooned “Happy birthday, Mr President” at a 45th birthday party for John F Kennedy.

The Clinton party’s organisers include Harvey Weinstein, the Hollywood mogul, John Sykes, the head of MTV, and Jim Dolan, who owns Madison Square Garden. New York gossip columnists are already in a frenzy over who might or might not be invited, but for Democrats and Republicans watching from Washington, one question towers above all: will Belinda be there?

Belinda Stronach, a Canadian MP and heir to a billion-dollar business fortune, has emerged as Bill’s most bewitching blonde. Spokesmen for both sides have long tired of repeating that Clinton and Stronach are “just friends” who see each other only rarely. Yet Stronach’s name has a knack of popping up at awkward moments in discussions of the Clinton marriage.

With that marriage under increasing scrutiny as the New York senator edges closer to a potentially historic presidential campaign, the organisers of Bill’s party are facing an awkward dilemma.

If Stronach is invited and turns up, she will ignite a tabloid frenzy. If she decides to stay away she will invite equally lurid speculation that she did not want to embarrass Hillary, who is this year coasting through a Senate re-election race that is expected to provide a launchpad for her White House campaign.

Although Clinton’s birthday is on August 19, the party is being planned to coincide with the September gathering of the Clinton Global Initiative, the former president’s private policy fest.

Stronach, who was 40 this month, was also present. The twice-divorced daughter of a Canadian billionaire who made a fortune in car parts, she is a prominent Ottawa politician who made headlines last year when she crossed the floor of parliament, jilting not only her Conservative party for the Liberals, but also discarding her lover who was the deputy Conservative leader.

Clinton and Stronach met five years ago at a charity benefit in Toronto. They have since met often enough for the New York Daily News to have dubbed her “Bubba’s blonde pal”.

Old doubts about the state of the Clintons’ marriage were revived this week by a remarkable front-page New York Times article that researched their movements and found that they spent an average of 14 days a month together.

“When the subject of Bill and Hillary Clinton comes up for many prominent Democrats these days, Topic A is the state of their marriage — and how the most dissected relationship in American life might affect Mrs Clinton’s possible bid for the presidency in 2008,” the newspaper said.

If history repeats itself and another glamorous blonde sings “Happy birthday, Mr President” from the stage of Madison Square Garden, Democrats will be praying she is Hillary.

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