WHEN President Bush took office there was at least one country with which he seemed guaranteed to have good relations. While he had travelled little outside the US, as Governor of Texas Mr Bush had enjoyed excellent relations with Mexico. He was a frequent visitor and had forged a productive relationship with Vicente Fox, the pro-American former Coca-Cola executive who became President in 2000.

In a symbolic gesture intended to cement a reorientation of US foreign policy, Mr Bush ensured when he took office that Señor Fox was the first foreign leader to be accorded a full state visit. At a state banquet at the White House on September 6, 2001, Mr Bush welcomed Señor Fox to the “Casa Blanca” and the Mexican leader replied that he was delighted to be “close to my friend Jorge”.

Five days later, the world changed. In the post-September 11 earthquake that engulfed US foreign policy, Mexico was almost forgotten. The southern neighbour’s ambitions of creating closer economic ties with the giant to its north and of increasing the flow of legal Mexican immigration into the US took a back seat to American national security concerns. Moreover, the US followed a strategic approach that made it increasingly unpopular in the world, and Mexico was no exception.

Señor Fox and Mr Bush became steadily estranged as popular Mexican hostility to Washington intensified. In 2003, despite official entreaties, Señor Fox flatly opposed the invasion of Iraq.

Five years later, the US can only look on as its relations with Mexico may be about to take a turn for the worse. If the left-wing candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador wins tomorrow’s presidential election, it could amount to the biggest in a series of blows to American influence in its own hemisphere.

Señor López Obrador has attacked Señor Fox for being too close to the US. He has voiced anger at what is perceived as a restrictive US immigration policy (ironically, in the US Mr Bush is attacked for supporting an overly liberal immigration approach).

The bigger issue will be whether victory for Señor López Obrador amounts to a further drift away from the US orbit of the turbulent Latin American world. Washington has already seen its ability to affect events in the region diminished as a succession of left-leaning candidates has take office.

Hugo Chávez, the President of Venezuela, is the most prominent thorn in the US side. He has cast himself as leader of an anti-American revolution in the region. Allying himself with Cuban dictator Fidel Castro, Señor Chávez has sought other friendships. So far his biggest success seems to have come in Bolivia, where last December Evo Morales won the presidency on a Chávez-like platform of anti-American rhetoric.

In 2002, Brazil elected a former socialist, Luis Inácio Lula da Silva, as President. In Argentina, the populist Government of Nestor Kirchner has eschewed economic orthodoxy and the country has bounced back from its crisis of 2001.

If the Mexican domino falls, could the US really have trouble in its own backyard? US officials seem unfazed by developments next door. It is by no means certain that Señor López Obrador will win.

If Felipe Calderón, the candidate of the outgoing PAN party, wins, the prospects of continuity in US-Mexico relations are large. But US observers believe that even a win for Señor López Obrador will not amount to a gain for Señor Chávez and the anti-American revolution he is trying to lead.

Indeed, the Chávez model of open defiance may be popular in Latin America but it seems to be winning few converts at the governing level. Judging by his record, Señor López Obrador seems likely to prove a leader in the Lula mould in Brazil, whose rhetoric in opposition was not matched by policies in office. And while he has resisted US ambitions for a Free Trade Area of the Americas, Senhor Lula has never disguised his distaste for indulging anti-American sentiment.

Some things are more powerful in Latin America than hatred of Yanqui imperialists. As Señor López Obrador will find, the reality of free market economics is one of them.

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