The best long-term hope for this conflict is that the Lebanese themselves turn on Hezbollah - something they may not be able to do alone, says Bronwen Maddox

Can anyone fix Lebanon? Perhaps - but not Israel, in the way it is going about it, and not the United Nations, as Tony Blair suggests.

The trite refrain is that in the end it will have to be the Lebanese themselves. But that will depend on them excising Hezbollah from their territory and politics, something they may not be able to do alone - and may not want to do at all.

The past six days have blasted away 16 years of progress in Lebanon. Europeans and Arabs, arriving in Beirut in every expectation of a sunny holiday or profitable business venture, are being evacuated by battleship and airlift.

They were not deluding themselves. Lebanon has transformed itself beyond recognition since the end of the 1975 to 1990 civil war, and the end of 29 years of partial occupation by Syria and 22 by Israel.

But that peace was fragile because it ignored the rising power of Hezbollah and the strength which its backers, Syria and Iran, have gained from the US’s predicament in Iraq. When Hezbollah chose to seize two Israeli soldiers, killing eight others, it broke the tacit pact with Israel through which they had avoided big clashes since the 2000 Israeli pullout.

That reflects Hezbollah’s new sense of strength - and possession of better missiles - even though it may have miscalculated its move this time. Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, its chief, said that Hezbollah wanted to swap the two soldiers for Lebanese and Palestinian prisoners in Israel. It had in mind, no doubt, its success in 2004, when Israel freed more than 400 prisoners in return for a kidnapped businessman and the bodies of three soldiers.

So far, no deal; Israel’s response has been to counterattack, not talk. It claimed yesterday that its strikes had destroyed a third of Hezbollah’s missiles. But even if the proportion were much greater that is only a fleeting answer. It will not stop Hezbollah re-arming, with more sophisticated weapons. And it will not weaken Hezbollah’s support at home.

Hezbollah now holds 14 of the 128 seats in parliament, the second largest of the groups in the Shia block which holds a total of 35 seats. Hezbollah’s share may be small, but that still marks a massive claim on legitimacy for a terrorist group.

Nasrallah was exaggerating when he said that all his fighters were authentically Lebanese, and cannot be neatly expelled from the south as Palestinian guerrillas were when Israel invaded in 1982. But he is right that Israel’s assault makes claims to precision it cannot possibly meet.

As the G8 leaders warned Israel, while acknowledging its right to defend itself, if it does not take care to avoid civilian casualties, it will lose international support and boost Hezbollah’s standing at home.

The best long-term hope for this conflict is that the Lebanese, encouraged by the real hopes of prosperity and normality which had begun to flourish, themselves turn on Hezbollah.

Despite the flurry of suggestions in St Petersburg for an international peace-keeping force, it is hard to see this winning much purchase.

Unifil, the United Nations long-standing peace-keeping force in south Lebanon, has had a poor record of effectiveness, gibed at by Israelis and Lebanese alike. It said today that it was unable to supply food and water to its troops or deliver aid to civilians because Israel would not guarantee their safe passage.

The heart of the problem lies in Syria and Iran and their support for Hezbollah. It was inevitable that they would be strengthened by the rise of a fellow Shia government in Iraq. They have gained even more from the spectacle of US paralysis in Iraq, and the self-doubt which has, late in the day, overtaken the Bush Administration.

The US lost an opportunity to take a tough stand against Syria last year despite international condemnation for its role in the assassination of Rafiq al-Hariri, Lebanon’s former prime minister. A searing UN report laid the blame on the regime of Bashar al-Assad, if not on the Syrian president himself.

It is not too late to rally that kind of pressure. But the answer lies in Damascus, not on the southern Lebanese border.

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