MINISTERS are drawing up plans for widespread closure of schools to halve a potential 100,000 deaths among children in the event of an avian-flu pandemic.

Sir Liam Donaldson, the chief medical officer, has advised the government that 50,000 deaths could be prevented by such a shutdown.

In his assessment of the consequences of the H5N1 avian flu virus mutating to threaten humans, it would take just a single case to be confirmed in a teacher or pupil for all the schools in a county or borough to be closed.

His confidential letter to the education department also suggests the government may have only enough anti-viral drugs to treat those members of a family who are infected, leaving the rest of the household untreated. The government aims to stockpile sufficient supplies of the drugs by this autumn to treat up to a quarter of the population.

Donaldson has already warned that the question “is not if the pandemic comes, but when”, although some researchers doubt that avian flu will mutate into a form that can spread from human to human. Last week the first case of the deadly H5N1 virus in Britain was confirmed in a swan in Scotland.

In his letter to Jacqui Smith, the schools minister, dated March 9, Donaldson says the “estimates” of the number of deaths in the event of a human pandemic are based on mathematical modelling by the government’s pandemic influenza scientific advisory group.

“Until the pandemic virus emerges, we cannot know for certain which groups would be most vulnerable,” he wrote. “If all age groups were affected equally and the virus was particularly severe (that is, at the upper end of our assumptions), the excess deaths in school-age children could be as high as 100,000. This would mean that potentially 50,000 deaths might be prevented by school closures.

“Based on the indications from the modelling, a policy of school closures could reduce the number of deaths in children. For this reason, I would recommend that schools should be planning on the basis that they may have to close for part or all of the pandemic.”

Donaldson says a policy of shutting all schools in a borough as soon as one case was confirmed “could achieve the public health benefit of school closures while mitigating the impact — arising from parents taking time off work to care for children — on the NHS and other essential services”.

He argues the greatest benefit would come by closing schools for an initial three weeks, although ministers say they are planning for “more meaningful” estimates of between eight and 10 weeks. He says the same would apply to children in nurseries and childcare groups.

Last week The Sunday Times disclosed a Home Office report that said a “prudent” worst case for deaths among the whole population was 320,000. However, the chief medical officer’s letter says that a severe disease could see fatalities of 700,000.

The government aims to stockpile 14.3m doses of Tamiflu, the anti-viral drug, by September. However, according to Donaldson, this would allow a “treatment strategy” only for those infected.

He refers to another approach — “household prophylaxis” — where all members of a household would get the drugs even when only one person was infected, but this would require “considerably more anti-viral drug”.

Under ministers’ contingency plans, parents would be advised to keep all children aged two and under at home, as well as children with greater vulnerability to disease because of existing conditions such as asthma.

Boarding schools would be advised to send children home. Some residential special schools catering for children with autism or learning difficulties would be advised to establish “family units” of small numbers of children to reduce the spread of infection.

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