THE bird flu virus is very unlikely to change into a form that will infect human beings, the Government’s Chief Scientific Adviser said yesterday.

Sir David King said that it was “totally misleading” to suggest that a global flu pandemic in humans was inevitable. His attempt to ease public concern coincided with the leak of documents detailing government plans to deal with a widespread outbreak of a human form of the virus.

The papers, prepared before the discovery in Scotland of a dead swan with the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu, show plans for a pandemic lasting up to six months. Reports based on the Whitehall papers also indicated concerns that there may be “more than one pandemic wave” of bird flu.

A leaked letter from Sir Liam Donaldson, the Chief Medical Officer, revealed that he has warned ministers of a worst-case scenario in which 100,000 children could die. The Sunday Times reported that, in a letter to Jacqui Smith, the Schools Minister, Sir Liam had written: “If all age groups were affected equally, and the virus was particularly severe, the excess deaths in school-age children could be as high as 100,000. This would mean that potentially 50,000 deaths might be prevented by school closures.”

Andrew Lansley, the Conservative health spokesman, called on the Government to disclose the full results of its studies. He said: “The Government’s contingency plan has left many questions unanswered, of which the two most significant are whether schools should be closed in the first-wave pandemic, and whether the public should be advised not to use public transport.” There is no firm evidence that the illness can be spread from person to person.

Sir David acknowledged that the Government had drawn up plans to deal with a human pandemic, but sought to calm public fears. Interviewed by Jonathan Dimbleby on ITV yesterday, he said: “The pandemic flu that we are now talking about would be in the human population. It is not in the human population at the moment. So, yes, the Government is preparing for that possibility, but I would say it’s a very low possibility.”

Jack McConnell, the First Minister in Scotland, said that the testing of birds would continue for many months but he defended the decision not to vaccinate poultry. Fourteen dead birds found in Scotland since the discovery of the dead swan at Cellardyke, Fife, have tested negative for H5N1. Further tests are being carried out on more wild birds.

About thirty chickens found on a country road inside the designated wild bird risk area had to be destroyed. The Scottish Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals said that the owner had probably panicked about bird flu.

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