SITTING in his campaign headquarters, a run-down flat in a Soviet-era tower block, Alexander Milinkevich seems an unlikely choice to take on Europe’s last dictator.

As he prepared to run for the presidency of Belarus, however, the softly spoken former physics professor was in combative mood last week. He vowed that people would take to the streets if, as widely expected, President Alexander Lukashenko rigs the vote in an attempt to cling on after 12 years in power.

His defiance has raised the prospect of clashes between the police and opposition supporters in this impoverished nation of 10m people sandwiched between Russia and Poland. Lukashenko, 51, a moustachioed former collective farm boss, warned: “If there are any provocations, we’ll give them such a going-over they won’t know what’s hit them.”

“The elections won’t be free and fair,” said Milinkevich, 58, whose 25-year academic career came to an abrupt end in 2001 when he was sacked because of his links with the opposition.

“We are not in favour of a revolution but I have no doubts that people will take to the streets to protest peacefully when the results are announced. We know Lukashenko is capable of ordering the police to shoot at demonstrators, but more and more people are tired of living in fear. We want democratic elections.”

Following the success of non-violent uprisings in Georgia and Ukraine which replaced pro-Russian regimes with more western-minded leaders, America and Europe have openly supported Milinkevich’s bid.

Both Washington and the European Union have imposed travel bans on Lukashenko and his closest aides. On a recent trip to Brussels and Berlin, Milinkevich met Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, and Jose Manuel Barroso, president of the European commission.

The Kremlin has shunned him even though President Vladimir Putin is known to dislike the erratic Lukashenko, who championed Saddam Hussein in Iraq and once described American congressmen as “dumb asses”.

As battle lines are drawn in the build-up to the vote on March 19, both Russia and the West are increasingly alarmed at the risk of bloodshed.

After suffering years of police harassment, beatings and arrests, opposition youth movements have forged close contacts with those who helped to spark events in Georgia and Ukraine.

“We have studied the revolutions in Serbia, Georgia and Ukraine. I even took part in the demonstrations in Kiev,” said one leader of Zubr, a 2,000- strong youth movement which has had hundreds of activists detained since it was founded four years ago.

“Everything is much harder here because this is a truly totalitarian regime and there is real fear. What’s crucial is to have a lot of protesters come out as soon as the results are announced. If that happens then it will become a wave too big for the police to attack.”

Both Milinkevich and the Zubr activist said disgruntled police officers had secretly told them that they would join the street protests if they swelled into a mass demonstration.

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