ONLY a year ago it might have provoked angry demonstrations and even a humiliating government retreat, but when Nicolas Sarkozy, the conservative interior minister and presidential hopeful, unveiled radical measures last week to curb immigration there was scarcely a murmur of dissent.

Under the new rules, highly skilled immigrants will be favoured over those coming to France to join family. The government will also have greater powers to expel illegal immigrants. “We no longer want immigration that is inflicted on us,” said Sarkozy, the son of a Hungarian immigrant, whose “zero tolerance” policing and American campaigning techniques have shaken up French politics.

Muslim groups were infuriated, interpreting it as a blow to north Africans in favour of Asian job seekers.

The relatively mild response from the left, however, suggested a change of mood in France, as did the surprisingly muted protests against a government scheme that would make it easier to sack young workers in their first two years in a job: unions had promised a turnout of at least 1m people. It was only a fraction of that.

“French opinion really is changing,” said Nicolas Baverez, an economist and author. “People understand that we must make radical changes if we are to continue to have an influence in the world.”

The extraordinary popularity of Sarkozy — “Sarko” — who is competing with Dominique de Villepin, the aristocratic prime minister, to succeed Jacques Chirac as president next year, is one measure of a revolution already under way in a country often described as allergic to change.

Another factor promoting the shift is France’s recent run of turbulent events, from the rejection of the European Union constitution to the loss of the 2012 Olympics and the rioting that broke out in many French cities late last year.

The French may be renowned for whingeing about their woes but these calamities have bolstered the doctrine of doom-mongering to such a degree that worried politicians have given it a name: “declinology”.

The “high priest” of this movement is Baverez and his disciples are multiplying, along with gloom-laden tomes decrying a brain drain and loss of faith in politicians and judges.

Their central tenet is that France, with its centralised state and high unemployment, has been overtaken by neighbours such as Britain — and even Spain — while arrogantly proclaiming the superiority of its outmoded social model.

The French policy of racial integration has been exposed as a failure, they argue, by comparison with the “Anglo-Saxon melting pot” and immigration policies need to be changed. Sarkozy has obliged.

Having seen his approval rating soar after referring to troublemakers in the immigrant suburbs as “scum”, Sarkozy wants to make it harder for illegal immigrants to gain residency by marrying a French citizen. His proposed law emphasises the need for immigrants to adapt to the French way of life or risk deportation.

For de Villepin, the rise of “declinology” spells trouble. He is backing a less radical approach than the “Blairist” Sarkozy and, although endorsing the immigration proposals, has vociferously defended the French social model. He dismisses Bavarez and his followers as “prophets of doom”.

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