A VACCINE ordered by the Government as a defence against avian flu may not prove effective, the latest scientific findings suggest.

The Government has ordered two to three million doses of a generic H5N1 vaccine and is soon to announce which company among those who tendered has been awarded the contract. But a team that studied the avian flu in China and South-East Asia has suggested that such generic vaccines may prove ineffective against a virus that has already had years to generate genetic diversity.

The research, published in Proceedings of the National Acedemy of Sciences, indicates that the virus has been spreading in an uncontrolled fashion in China for the past decade, has crossed into Vietnam on three occasions and may be spread by “carrier” poultry that show no symptoms. Such is the diversity of the viruses now circulating in China and South-East Asia that attempts to produce a generic H5N1 vaccine may be fruitless, the team suggests.

The team is led by Yi Guan, of Shantou University, China, and includes one of the foremost experts on avian flu genetics, Robert Webster, of St Jude’s Children’s Research Hospital, Memphis, Tennessee.

The team concludes: “The antigenic diversity of viruses currently circulating in South-East Asia and southern China challenges the wisdom of reliance on a single human vaccine for pandemic preparedness.”

GlaxoSmithKline is one of the companies developing such a vaccine, and plans to enter clinical trials with it in April to test its safety. It expects to be in production by the end of the year, and is marketing it to the British Government, among others.

“We know the virus will mutate,” a GSK spokeswoman said yesterday. “But we think there will be a lot of value in creating something that acts against H5N1.”

The Government’s other defence against pandemic flu is the antiviral drug Tamiflu, of which it has ordered 14.6 million courses. A spokeswoman for the Department of Health said yesterday that almost five million had been delivered so far.

The European Commission stepped up Europe’s defences against bird flu yesterday after confirmation that the deadliest strain of the virus has reached at least two EU countries. Greece and Italy have found the H5N1 strain in dead migratory swans on their territory — the strain that has killed about 80 people in South-East Asia and two children in Turkey.

Tests were being carried out at a laboratory in Weybridge, Surrey, yesterday to see if the H5 strain found in dead swans in Slovenia was, as expected, H5N1.

The discoveries have triggered contingency plans agreed in advance involving a shutdown of the movement of poultry in the affected regions and close monitoring.

The study by Dr Webster and colleagues has eliminated most remaining doubts that migrating birds can carry the infection. They looked at samples from thousands of migratory birds and found H5N1 present in about 2 per cent of apparently healthy ducks.

All the strains identified have a common origin, a 1996 virus in Guangdong, China. The research suggests that random infections by migrating birds are unavoidable, and that the virus will almost certainly reach Britain in this way. But what determines its spread is what happens to domesticated poultry. Where decisive action was taken — in Hong Kong, Japan, and South Korea — H5N1 was stopped. Similar measures needed to be employed in southern China, the Webster team said.

A European Commission spokesman said yesterday: “The measures being applied in Italy, Greece and Slovenia are part and parcel of the EU’s anti-avian flu policy.” He said that there should be no surprise if avian flu emerged in wild birds in EU territory. “What is important is that member states implement the measures.”

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